We simulated Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United 100,000 times. Atlético de Madrid won 52,665 of them (52.7%), the draw came up 23.4% of the time and Manchester United won 23.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.5%, while the likeliest Atlético de Madrid win is 2-1 (9.4%). Both teams score in 62.1% of simulations.
| Atlético de Madrid win | 52.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Manchester United win | 23.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.5%) |
| Expected goals | 1.97 – 1.27 |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.6% |
| Atlético de Madrid score first | 59.3% |
| Manchester United score first | 35.8% |
| Atlético de Madrid clean sheet | 28.4% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 14.4% |
Sabah
Slavia Praha
1.4–1.7
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Lens
Sporting CP
1.6–1.5
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Galatasaray
FC Barcelona
1.3–3.0
xG
79%
Over 2.5
Arsenal
LOSC Lille
2.6–0.7
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Viking
FC Bayern München
0.9–3.7
xG
83%
Over 2.5
Inter
Club Brugge
2.7–0.9
xG
70%
Over 2.5
Villarreal
Napoli
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
RB Leipzig
PSV
2.2–1.5
xG
71%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420673891 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Atlético de Madrid are favourites. They win 52.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.4% for the draw and 23.9% for Manchester United. Including the draw, Atlético de Madrid avoid defeat 76.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.5% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Atlético de Madrid win is 2-1 (9.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 62.1% of simulations. Atlético de Madrid keep a clean sheet 28.4% of the time and Manchester United 14.4%.
The simulations average 3.24 goals: 1.97 for Atlético de Madrid and 1.27 for Manchester United. Over 1.5 goals lands 83.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 62.5% and over 3.5 goals 40.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
