We simulated Bahia vs Flamengo 100,000 times. Flamengo won 41,597 of them (41.6%), the draw came up 25.4% of the time and Bahia won 33%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.8%, while the likeliest Flamengo win is 1-2 (8.7%). Both teams score in 59.2% of simulations.
| Bahia win | 33% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.4% |
| Flamengo win | 41.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.38 – 1.57 |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.1% |
| Bahia score first | 39.4% |
| Flamengo score first | 54.8% |
| Bahia clean sheet | 21.2% |
| Flamengo clean sheet | 25.7% |
Chapecoense
Athletico PR
1.2–1.6
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Bragantino
Cruzeiro
1.8–1.2
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Mirassol
Internacional
1.6–1.1
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Botafogo
Chapecoense
2.1–0.9
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Atlético Mineiro
Coritiba
2.3–0.9
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Athletico PR
Palmeiras
1.3–1.3
xG
48%
Over 2.5
São Paulo
Vasco da Gama
1.4–1.1
xG
45%
Over 2.5
Grêmio
Cruzeiro
1.4–1.4
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493572 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Flamengo are favourites. They win 41.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.4% for the draw and 33% for Bahia. Including the draw, Flamengo avoid defeat 67% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.8% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-1 (7.8%). The likeliest Flamengo win is 1-2 (8.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 59.2% of simulations. Bahia keep a clean sheet 21.2% of the time and Flamengo 25.7%.
The simulations average 2.95 goals: 1.38 for Bahia and 1.57 for Flamengo. Over 1.5 goals lands 79.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 56.3% and over 3.5 goals 34.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
