We simulated Botafogo vs Chapecoense 100,000 times. Botafogo won 64,745 of them (64.7%), the draw came up 20.3% of the time and Chapecoense won 15%. The most likely score is 2-0 (11.1%), and both teams score in 50.8% of simulations.
| Botafogo win | 64.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 20.3% |
| Chapecoense win | 15% |
| Most likely score | 2-0 (11.1%) |
| Expected goals | 2.08 – 0.88 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% |
| Botafogo score first | 66.2% |
| Chapecoense score first | 28.7% |
| Botafogo clean sheet | 41.8% |
| Chapecoense clean sheet | 12.9% |
Chapecoense
Athletico PR
1.2–1.6
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Bragantino
Cruzeiro
1.8–1.2
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Mirassol
Internacional
1.6–1.1
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Atlético Mineiro
Coritiba
2.3–0.9
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Athletico PR
Palmeiras
1.3–1.3
xG
48%
Over 2.5
São Paulo
Vasco da Gama
1.4–1.1
xG
45%
Over 2.5
Grêmio
Cruzeiro
1.4–1.4
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Fluminense
Santos
1.7–1.1
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493528 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Botafogo are favourites. They win 64.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 20.3% for the draw and 15% for Chapecoense. Including the draw, Botafogo avoid defeat 85% of the time.
2-0, which came up in 11.1% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (9.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 50.8% of simulations. Botafogo keep a clean sheet 41.8% of the time and Chapecoense 12.9%.
The simulations average 2.96 goals: 2.08 for Botafogo and 0.88 for Chapecoense. Over 1.5 goals lands 79.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 56.5% and over 3.5 goals 34.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
