We simulated Chapecoense vs Athletico PR 100,000 times. Athletico PR won 41,078 of them (41.1%), the draw came up 27.2% of the time and Chapecoense won 31.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.7%, while the likeliest Athletico PR win is 1-2 (8.7%). Both teams score in 57.1% of simulations.
| Chapecoense win | 31.8% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.2% |
| Athletico PR win | 41.1% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.7%) |
| Expected goals | 1.30 – 1.51 |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Chapecoense score first | 40.4% |
| Athletico PR score first | 51.9% |
| Chapecoense clean sheet | 22.6% |
| Athletico PR clean sheet | 27.7% |
Bragantino
Mirassol
1.8–1.0
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Internacional
Corinthians
1.4–1.0
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Remo
Grêmio
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Vitória
Chapecoense
1.7–0.9
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Botafogo
Vasco da Gama
1.3–1.4
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Cruzeiro
São Paulo
1.7–0.9
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Santos
Flamengo
1.1–1.6
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Athletico PR
Atlético Mineiro
1.6–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493593 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Athletico PR are favourites. They win 41.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.2% for the draw and 31.8% for Chapecoense. Including the draw, Athletico PR avoid defeat 68.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.7% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-1 (8.1%). The likeliest Athletico PR win is 1-2 (8.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 57.1% of simulations. Chapecoense keep a clean sheet 22.6% of the time and Athletico PR 27.7%.
The simulations average 2.81 goals: 1.30 for Chapecoense and 1.51 for Athletico PR. Over 1.5 goals lands 77.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 53% and over 3.5 goals 31%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Bet365), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
