We simulated Chapecoense vs Fluminense 100,000 times. Fluminense won 46,727 of them (46.7%), the draw came up 26.6% of the time and Chapecoense won 26.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.5%, while the likeliest Fluminense win is 1-2 (9.2%). Both teams score in 55.3% of simulations.
| Chapecoense win | 26.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.6% |
| Fluminense win | 46.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.5%) |
| Expected goals | 1.16 – 1.61 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% |
| Chapecoense score first | 37% |
| Fluminense score first | 55.3% |
| Chapecoense clean sheet | 20.5% |
| Fluminense clean sheet | 31.7% |
Cruzeiro
Remo
2.5–0.9
xG
65%
Over 2.5
Mirassol
São Paulo
1.6–1.1
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Vitória
Athletico PR
1.5–1.3
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Internacional
Botafogo
1.6–1.1
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Palmeiras
Bragantino
2.1–0.9
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Vasco da Gama
Corinthians
1.9–0.8
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Santos
Bahia
1.9–1.2
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Coritiba
Grêmio
1.6–1.1
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493759 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Fluminense are favourites. They win 46.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.6% for the draw and 26.6% for Chapecoense. Including the draw, Fluminense avoid defeat 73.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.5% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-1 (9.2%). The likeliest Fluminense win is 1-2 (9.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 55.3% of simulations. Chapecoense keep a clean sheet 20.5% of the time and Fluminense 31.7%.
The simulations average 2.77 goals: 1.16 for Chapecoense and 1.61 for Fluminense. Over 1.5 goals lands 77% of the time, over 2.5 goals 52.1% and over 3.5 goals 30.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
