We simulated Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union 100,000 times. Chicago Fire won 40,350 of them (40.4%), the draw came up 24.4% of the time and Philadelphia Union won 35.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.3%, while the likeliest Chicago Fire win is 2-1 (8.2%). Both teams score in 69.1% of simulations.
| Chicago Fire win | 40.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.4% |
| Philadelphia Union win | 35.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.3%) |
| Expected goals | 1.82 – 1.70 |
| Both teams to score | 69.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.7% |
| Chicago Fire score first | 56.3% |
| Philadelphia Union score first | 39.4% |
| Chicago Fire clean sheet | 18.7% |
| Philadelphia Union clean sheet | 16.6% |
CF Montréal
Atlanta United
1.7–1.4
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Cincinnati
New England
2.2–1.4
xG
70%
Over 2.5
DC United
New York RB
1.8–1.3
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Columbus Crew
Charlotte
1.9–1.3
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Inter Miami
New York City
2.4–1.2
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Toronto
Orlando City
2.0–1.6
xG
70%
Over 2.5
Nashville SC
Sporting KC
3.0–0.9
xG
75%
Over 2.5
St. Louis City
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.8–1.5
xG
65%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420510050 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Chicago Fire are favourites. They win 40.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.4% for the draw and 35.2% for Philadelphia Union. Including the draw, Chicago Fire avoid defeat 64.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.3% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.2%) and 1-2 (7.6%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win is 2-1 (8.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 69.1% of simulations. Chicago Fire keep a clean sheet 18.7% of the time and Philadelphia Union 16.6%.
The simulations average 3.52 goals: 1.82 for Chicago Fire and 1.70 for Philadelphia Union. Over 1.5 goals lands 87.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 68% and over 3.5 goals 46.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
