We simulated Coritiba vs Grêmio 100,000 times. Coritiba won 47,233 of them (47.2%), the draw came up 25.8% of the time and Grêmio won 26.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.2%, while the likeliest Coritiba win is 1-0 (10.3%). Both teams score in 53.3% of simulations.
| Coritiba win | 47.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.8% |
| Grêmio win | 26.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.2%) |
| Expected goals | 1.57 – 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% |
| Coritiba score first | 53.1% |
| Grêmio score first | 39.4% |
| Coritiba clean sheet | 32.9% |
| Grêmio clean sheet | 21.2% |
Cruzeiro
Remo
2.5–0.9
xG
65%
Over 2.5
Mirassol
São Paulo
1.6–1.1
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Vitória
Athletico PR
1.5–1.3
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Internacional
Botafogo
1.6–1.1
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Palmeiras
Bragantino
2.1–0.9
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Vasco da Gama
Corinthians
1.9–0.8
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Chapecoense
Fluminense
1.2–1.6
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Santos
Bahia
1.9–1.2
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493523 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Coritiba are favourites. They win 47.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.8% for the draw and 26.9% for Grêmio. Including the draw, Coritiba avoid defeat 73.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.2% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest Coritiba win is 1-0 (10.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.3% of simulations. Coritiba keep a clean sheet 32.9% of the time and Grêmio 21.2%.
The simulations average 2.69 goals: 1.57 for Coritiba and 1.12 for Grêmio. Over 1.5 goals lands 75.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 50.3% and over 3.5 goals 28.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
