We simulated Drogheda United vs Derry City 100,000 times. Derry City won 40,207 of them (40.2%), the draw came up 27.1% of the time and Drogheda United won 32.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.8%, while the likeliest Derry City win is 0-1 (9.6%). Both teams score in 53.2% of simulations.
| Drogheda United win | 32.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.1% |
| Derry City win | 40.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.23 – 1.39 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Drogheda United score first | 43.4% |
| Derry City score first | 48.7% |
| Drogheda United clean sheet | 25.2% |
| Derry City clean sheet | 29.6% |
St Patrick's
Shelbourne
1.9–0.9
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Bohemians
Waterford United
2.3–1.1
xG
65%
Over 2.5
Galway United
Shamrock Rovers
1.1–1.7
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Sligo Rovers
Dundalk
1.3–2.0
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Derry City
St Patrick's
1.3–1.3
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Waterford United
Galway United
1.7–1.2
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420498418 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Derry City are favourites. They win 40.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.1% for the draw and 32.7% for Drogheda United. Including the draw, Derry City avoid defeat 67.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.8% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (9.6%) and 1-2 (8.5%). The likeliest Derry City win is 0-1 (9.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.2% of simulations. Drogheda United keep a clean sheet 25.2% of the time and Derry City 29.6%.
The simulations average 2.62 goals: 1.23 for Drogheda United and 1.39 for Derry City. Over 1.5 goals lands 73.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 48.6% and over 3.5 goals 27%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
