We simulated Fluminense vs Santos 100,000 times. Fluminense won 51,993 of them (52%), the draw came up 24.8% of the time and Santos won 23.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.7%, while the likeliest Fluminense win is 1-0 (10.5%). Both teams score in 53.1% of simulations.
| Fluminense win | 52% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.8% |
| Santos win | 23.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.7%) |
| Expected goals | 1.70 – 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.8% |
| Fluminense score first | 56.1% |
| Santos score first | 36.9% |
| Fluminense clean sheet | 35.3% |
| Santos clean sheet | 18.7% |
Chapecoense
Athletico PR
1.2–1.6
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Bragantino
Cruzeiro
1.8–1.2
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Mirassol
Internacional
1.6–1.1
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Botafogo
Chapecoense
2.1–0.9
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Atlético Mineiro
Coritiba
2.3–0.9
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Athletico PR
Palmeiras
1.3–1.3
xG
48%
Over 2.5
São Paulo
Vasco da Gama
1.4–1.1
xG
45%
Over 2.5
Grêmio
Cruzeiro
1.4–1.4
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493592 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Fluminense are favourites. They win 52% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.8% for the draw and 23.2% for Santos. Including the draw, Fluminense avoid defeat 76.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.7% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest Fluminense win is 1-0 (10.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.1% of simulations. Fluminense keep a clean sheet 35.3% of the time and Santos 18.7%.
The simulations average 2.75 goals: 1.70 for Fluminense and 1.05 for Santos. Over 1.5 goals lands 76.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 51.7% and over 3.5 goals 29.8%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
