We simulated Grêmio vs Cruzeiro 100,000 times. Cruzeiro won 37,303 of them (37.3%), the draw came up 25.8% of the time and Grêmio won 36.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.1%, while the likeliest Cruzeiro win is 1-2 (8.2%). Both teams score in 56.9% of simulations.
| Grêmio win | 36.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.8% |
| Cruzeiro win | 37.3% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.40 – 1.41 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% |
| Grêmio score first | 49% |
| Cruzeiro score first | 44.5% |
| Grêmio clean sheet | 24.7% |
| Cruzeiro clean sheet | 25% |
Chapecoense
Athletico PR
1.2–1.6
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Bragantino
Cruzeiro
1.8–1.2
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Mirassol
Internacional
1.6–1.1
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Botafogo
Chapecoense
2.1–0.9
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Atlético Mineiro
Coritiba
2.3–0.9
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Athletico PR
Palmeiras
1.3–1.3
xG
48%
Over 2.5
São Paulo
Vasco da Gama
1.4–1.1
xG
45%
Over 2.5
Fluminense
Santos
1.7–1.1
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493589 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Cruzeiro are favourites. They win 37.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.8% for the draw and 36.9% for Grêmio. Including the draw, Cruzeiro avoid defeat 63.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.1% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.2%) and 2-1 (8.2%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win is 1-2 (8.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 56.9% of simulations. Grêmio keep a clean sheet 24.7% of the time and Cruzeiro 25%.
The simulations average 2.82 goals: 1.40 for Grêmio and 1.41 for Cruzeiro. Over 1.5 goals lands 77.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 53.3% and over 3.5 goals 31.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
