We simulated Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies 100,000 times. Tampa Bay Rowdies won 44,650 of them (44.7%), the draw came up 26.8% of the time and Indy Eleven won 28.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.6%, while the likeliest Tampa Bay Rowdies win is 0-1 (10.9%). Both teams score in 51.2% of simulations.
| Indy Eleven win | 28.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.8% |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies win | 44.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.11 – 1.45 |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% |
| Indy Eleven score first | 40.4% |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies score first | 51.5% |
| Indy Eleven clean sheet | 23.8% |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies clean sheet | 33.4% |
Lexington
Tulsa Roughnecks
2.0–1.0
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Sporting JAX
Birmingham Legion
1.6–2.1
xG
71%
Over 2.5
Charleston Battery
Louisville City
1.8–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Detroit City
Rhode Island
1.3–1.0
xG
40%
Over 2.5
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Hartford Athletic
1.3–0.9
xG
36%
Over 2.5
Miami FC II
Loudoun United
1.9–1.3
xG
62%
Over 2.5
New Mexico United
Monterey Bay
2.2–1.1
xG
65%
Over 2.5
El Paso Locomotive
Orange County
2.1–1.0
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420520166 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Tampa Bay Rowdies are favourites. They win 44.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.8% for the draw and 28.5% for Indy Eleven. Including the draw, Tampa Bay Rowdies avoid defeat 71.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.6% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (10.9%) and 1-2 (8.8%). The likeliest Tampa Bay Rowdies win is 0-1 (10.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 51.2% of simulations. Indy Eleven keep a clean sheet 23.8% of the time and Tampa Bay Rowdies 33.4%.
The simulations average 2.56 goals: 1.11 for Indy Eleven and 1.45 for Tampa Bay Rowdies. Over 1.5 goals lands 72.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 47% and over 3.5 goals 25.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
