We simulated Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia 100,000 times. Jagiellonia Białystok won 65,700 of them (65.7%), the draw came up 20.7% of the time and Ararat-Armenia won 13.6%. The most likely score is 2-0 (10.9%), and both teams score in 52.8% of simulations.
| Jagiellonia Białystok win | 65.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 20.7% |
| Ararat-Armenia win | 13.6% |
| Most likely score | 2-0 (10.9%) |
| Expected goals | 2.19 – 0.89 |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.1% |
| Jagiellonia Białystok score first | 66.9% |
| Ararat-Armenia score first | 27.6% |
| Jagiellonia Białystok clean sheet | 41.2% |
| Ararat-Armenia clean sheet | 11.7% |
Sparta Praha
Lillestrøm
2.5–0.9
xG
65%
Over 2.5
AZ Alkmaar
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
2.4–0.8
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Union Saint-Gilloise
Real Sociedad
1.7–1.4
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Lech Poznań
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.3–2.1
xG
65%
Over 2.5
Celje
Omonia Nicosia
1.4–1.3
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Salzburg
AC Milan
1.2–1.8
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Olympique Lyonnais
Crystal Palace
1.8–1.3
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Torreense
Sunderland
0.9–2.2
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420684691 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Jagiellonia Białystok are favourites. They win 65.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 20.7% for the draw and 13.6% for Ararat-Armenia. Including the draw, Jagiellonia Białystok avoid defeat 86.4% of the time.
2-0, which came up in 10.9% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (9.7%) and 2-1 (9.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 52.8% of simulations. Jagiellonia Białystok keep a clean sheet 41.2% of the time and Ararat-Armenia 11.7%.
The simulations average 3.08 goals: 2.19 for Jagiellonia Białystok and 0.89 for Ararat-Armenia. Over 1.5 goals lands 81.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 59.2% and over 3.5 goals 37.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
