We simulated Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield 100,000 times. Lanús won 47,666 of them (47.7%), the draw came up 29.7% of the time and Vélez Sarsfield won 22.6%. The most likely score is 1-0 (14.2%), and both teams score in 42.7% of simulations.
| Lanús win | 47.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29.7% |
| Vélez Sarsfield win | 22.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-0 (14.2%) |
| Expected goals | 1.35 – 0.84 |
| Both teams to score | 42.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% |
| Lanús score first | 53.7% |
| Vélez Sarsfield score first | 34% |
| Lanús clean sheet | 43.3% |
| Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet | 26.3% |
Aldosivi
Sarmiento
1.3–1.0
xG
40%
Over 2.5
Gimnasia La Plata
Atlético Tucumán
1.6–0.9
xG
45%
Over 2.5
Instituto
Boca Juniors
1.2–1.1
xG
41%
Over 2.5
Unión Santa Fe
Defensa y Justicia
1.5–1.1
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Barracas Central
Huracán
1.0–0.9
xG
29%
Over 2.5
Central Cordoba SdE
Estudiantes
1.0–1.2
xG
37%
Over 2.5
Tigre
Banfield
1.7–0.8
xG
43%
Over 2.5
River Plate
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
2.4–0.4
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420490480 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Lanús are favourites. They win 47.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 29.7% for the draw and 22.6% for Vélez Sarsfield. Including the draw, Lanús avoid defeat 77.4% of the time.
1-0, which came up in 14.2% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (13.4%) and 0-0 (12.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 42.7% of simulations. Lanús keep a clean sheet 43.3% of the time and Vélez Sarsfield 26.3%.
The simulations average 2.19 goals: 1.35 for Lanús and 0.84 for Vélez Sarsfield. Over 1.5 goals lands 65% of the time, over 2.5 goals 37.5% and over 3.5 goals 18%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
