We simulated Lexington vs Tulsa Roughnecks 100,000 times. Lexington won 59,293 of them (59.3%), the draw came up 23% of the time and Tulsa Roughnecks won 17.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.8%, while the likeliest Lexington win is 2-0 (10.2%). Both teams score in 53.4% of simulations.
| Lexington win | 59.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23% |
| Tulsa Roughnecks win | 17.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.95 – 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.5% |
| Lexington score first | 61.7% |
| Tulsa Roughnecks score first | 31.9% |
| Lexington clean sheet | 38.3% |
| Tulsa Roughnecks clean sheet | 14.7% |
Sporting JAX
Birmingham Legion
1.6–2.1
xG
71%
Over 2.5
Charleston Battery
Louisville City
1.8–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Detroit City
Rhode Island
1.3–1.0
xG
40%
Over 2.5
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Hartford Athletic
1.3–0.9
xG
36%
Over 2.5
Miami FC II
Loudoun United
1.9–1.3
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Indy Eleven
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.1–1.5
xG
47%
Over 2.5
New Mexico United
Monterey Bay
2.2–1.1
xG
65%
Over 2.5
El Paso Locomotive
Orange County
2.1–1.0
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420520078 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Lexington are favourites. They win 59.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23% for the draw and 17.7% for Tulsa Roughnecks. Including the draw, Lexington avoid defeat 82.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.8% of simulations. Next are 2-0 (10.2%) and 1-0 (9.9%). The likeliest Lexington win is 2-0 (10.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.4% of simulations. Lexington keep a clean sheet 38.3% of the time and Tulsa Roughnecks 14.7%.
The simulations average 2.92 goals: 1.95 for Lexington and 0.97 for Tulsa Roughnecks. Over 1.5 goals lands 79.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 55.5% and over 3.5 goals 33.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
