We simulated Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain 100,000 times. Manchester City won 46,222 of them (46.2%), the draw came up 23.2% of the time and Paris Saint Germain won 30.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10%, while the likeliest Manchester City win is 2-1 (8.8%). Both teams score in 65.8% of simulations.
| Manchester City win | 46.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.2% |
| Paris Saint Germain win | 30.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10%) |
| Expected goals | 1.89 – 1.50 |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.8% |
| Manchester City score first | 51.8% |
| Paris Saint Germain score first | 44% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 22.7% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 15.6% |
Sabah
Slavia Praha
1.4–1.7
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Lens
Sporting CP
1.6–1.5
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Galatasaray
FC Barcelona
1.3–3.0
xG
79%
Over 2.5
Atlético de Madrid
Manchester United
2.0–1.3
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Arsenal
LOSC Lille
2.6–0.7
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Viking
FC Bayern München
0.9–3.7
xG
83%
Over 2.5
Inter
Club Brugge
2.7–0.9
xG
70%
Over 2.5
Villarreal
Napoli
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420673886 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Manchester City are favourites. They win 46.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.2% for the draw and 30.6% for Paris Saint Germain. Including the draw, Manchester City avoid defeat 69.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.8%) and 1-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Manchester City win is 2-1 (8.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 65.8% of simulations. Manchester City keep a clean sheet 22.7% of the time and Paris Saint Germain 15.6%.
The simulations average 3.39 goals: 1.89 for Manchester City and 1.50 for Paris Saint Germain. Over 1.5 goals lands 85.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 65.5% and over 3.5 goals 43.8%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
