We simulated Mariehamn vs Ilves 100,000 times. Ilves won 37,801 of them (37.8%), the draw came up 27.7% of the time and Mariehamn won 34.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13%, while the likeliest Ilves win is 0-1 (8.4%). Both teams score in 55.2% of simulations.
| Mariehamn win | 34.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.7% |
| Ilves win | 37.8% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13%) |
| Expected goals | 1.31 – 1.39 |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% |
| Mariehamn score first | 46.9% |
| Ilves score first | 45% |
| Mariehamn clean sheet | 25.5% |
| Ilves clean sheet | 27.3% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420709419 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Ilves are favourites. They win 37.8% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.7% for the draw and 34.5% for Mariehamn. Including the draw, Ilves avoid defeat 65.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (8.4%) and 1-2 (8.3%). The likeliest Ilves win is 0-1 (8.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 55.2% of simulations. Mariehamn keep a clean sheet 25.5% of the time and Ilves 27.3%.
The simulations average 2.70 goals: 1.31 for Mariehamn and 1.39 for Ilves. Over 1.5 goals lands 75.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 50.4% and over 3.5 goals 28.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
