We simulated Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso 100,000 times. Melgar won 59,215 of them (59.2%), the draw came up 23.4% of the time and Deportivo Garcilaso won 17.4%. The most likely score is 1-0 (12.6%), and both teams score in 47.4% of simulations.
| Melgar win | 59.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Deportivo Garcilaso win | 17.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-0 (12.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.79 – 0.85 |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% |
| Melgar score first | 61.1% |
| Deportivo Garcilaso score first | 31.4% |
| Melgar clean sheet | 43.1% |
| Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet | 17.2% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420580137 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Melgar are favourites. They win 59.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.4% for the draw and 17.4% for Deportivo Garcilaso. Including the draw, Melgar avoid defeat 82.6% of the time.
1-0, which came up in 12.6% of simulations. Next are 2-0 (11.3%) and 1-1 (11%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 47.4% of simulations. Melgar keep a clean sheet 43.1% of the time and Deportivo Garcilaso 17.2%.
The simulations average 2.64 goals: 1.79 for Melgar and 0.85 for Deportivo Garcilaso. Over 1.5 goals lands 73.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 48.9% and over 3.5 goals 27.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
