We simulated New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay 100,000 times. New Mexico United won 60,911 of them (60.9%), the draw came up 20.5% of the time and Monterey Bay won 18.6%. The most likely score is 2-1 (9.5%), and both teams score in 60.5% of simulations.
| New Mexico United win | 60.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 20.5% |
| Monterey Bay win | 18.6% |
| Most likely score | 2-1 (9.5%) |
| Expected goals | 2.21 – 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.1% |
| New Mexico United score first | 61.7% |
| Monterey Bay score first | 34.1% |
| New Mexico United clean sheet | 32.2% |
| Monterey Bay clean sheet | 11.4% |
Lexington
Tulsa Roughnecks
2.0–1.0
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Sporting JAX
Birmingham Legion
1.6–2.1
xG
71%
Over 2.5
Charleston Battery
Louisville City
1.8–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Detroit City
Rhode Island
1.3–1.0
xG
40%
Over 2.5
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Hartford Athletic
1.3–0.9
xG
36%
Over 2.5
Miami FC II
Loudoun United
1.9–1.3
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Indy Eleven
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.1–1.5
xG
47%
Over 2.5
El Paso Locomotive
Orange County
2.1–1.0
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420520147 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
New Mexico United are favourites. They win 60.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 20.5% for the draw and 18.6% for Monterey Bay. Including the draw, New Mexico United avoid defeat 81.5% of the time.
2-1, which came up in 9.5% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 60.5% of simulations. New Mexico United keep a clean sheet 32.2% of the time and Monterey Bay 11.4%.
The simulations average 3.36 goals: 2.21 for New Mexico United and 1.14 for Monterey Bay. Over 1.5 goals lands 84.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 64.8% and over 3.5 goals 43.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
