We simulated RB Leipzig vs PSV 100,000 times. RB Leipzig won 54,983 of them (55%), the draw came up 20.1% of the time and PSV won 24.9%. The most likely score is 2-1 (8.9%), and both teams score in 68.1% of simulations.
| RB Leipzig win | 55% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 20.1% |
| PSV win | 24.9% |
| Most likely score | 2-1 (8.9%) |
| Expected goals | 2.24 – 1.46 |
| Both teams to score | 68.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.5% |
| RB Leipzig score first | 58.4% |
| PSV score first | 39% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 23.5% |
| PSV clean sheet | 11% |
Sabah
Slavia Praha
1.4–1.7
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Lens
Sporting CP
1.6–1.5
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Galatasaray
FC Barcelona
1.3–3.0
xG
79%
Over 2.5
Atlético de Madrid
Manchester United
2.0–1.3
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Arsenal
LOSC Lille
2.6–0.7
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Viking
FC Bayern München
0.9–3.7
xG
83%
Over 2.5
Inter
Club Brugge
2.7–0.9
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Villarreal
Napoli
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420684459 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
RB Leipzig are favourites. They win 55% of our 100,000 simulations, against 20.1% for the draw and 24.9% for PSV. Including the draw, RB Leipzig avoid defeat 75.1% of the time.
2-1, which came up in 8.9% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (8.1%) and 3-1 (6.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 68.1% of simulations. RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet 23.5% of the time and PSV 11%.
The simulations average 3.71 goals: 2.24 for RB Leipzig and 1.46 for PSV. Over 1.5 goals lands 88.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 71.1% and over 3.5 goals 50.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
