We simulated Santos vs Bahia 100,000 times. Santos won 53,212 of them (53.2%), the draw came up 24% of the time and Bahia won 22.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.1%, while the likeliest Santos win is 2-1 (9.6%). Both teams score in 57.8% of simulations.
| Santos win | 53.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24% |
| Bahia win | 22.8% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.86 – 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% |
| Santos score first | 59.5% |
| Bahia score first | 34.4% |
| Santos clean sheet | 32.1% |
| Bahia clean sheet | 16% |
Cruzeiro
Remo
2.5–0.9
xG
65%
Over 2.5
Mirassol
São Paulo
1.6–1.1
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Vitória
Athletico PR
1.5–1.3
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Internacional
Botafogo
1.6–1.1
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Palmeiras
Bragantino
2.1–0.9
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Vasco da Gama
Corinthians
1.9–0.8
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Chapecoense
Fluminense
1.2–1.6
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Coritiba
Grêmio
1.6–1.1
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493588 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Santos are favourites. They win 53.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24% for the draw and 22.8% for Bahia. Including the draw, Santos avoid defeat 77.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.1% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Santos win is 2-1 (9.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 57.8% of simulations. Santos keep a clean sheet 32.1% of the time and Bahia 16%.
The simulations average 3.01 goals: 1.86 for Santos and 1.15 for Bahia. Over 1.5 goals lands 80.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 57.6% and over 3.5 goals 35.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
