We simulated Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens 100,000 times. Shakhtar Donetsk won 38,246 of them (38.3%), the draw came up 27.8% of the time and AEK Athens won 33.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13.1%, while the likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win is 1-0 (9%). Both teams score in 53.8% of simulations.
| Shakhtar Donetsk win | 38.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.8% |
| AEK Athens win | 33.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.36 – 1.27 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk score first | 44.7% |
| AEK Athens score first | 46.9% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet | 28.5% |
| AEK Athens clean sheet | 26% |
Sabah
Slavia Praha
1.4–1.7
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Lens
Sporting CP
1.6–1.5
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Galatasaray
FC Barcelona
1.3–3.0
xG
79%
Over 2.5
Atlético de Madrid
Manchester United
2.0–1.3
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Arsenal
LOSC Lille
2.6–0.7
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Viking
FC Bayern München
0.9–3.7
xG
83%
Over 2.5
Inter
Club Brugge
2.7–0.9
xG
70%
Over 2.5
Villarreal
Napoli
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420684478 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Shakhtar Donetsk are favourites. They win 38.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.8% for the draw and 33.9% for AEK Athens. Including the draw, Shakhtar Donetsk avoid defeat 66.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13.1% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (9%) and 0-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win is 1-0 (9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.8% of simulations. Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet 28.5% of the time and AEK Athens 26%.
The simulations average 2.63 goals: 1.36 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.27 for AEK Athens. Over 1.5 goals lands 74.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 48.8% and over 3.5 goals 27.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
