We simulated Sport Recife vs Fortaleza 100,000 times. Sport Recife won 43,425 of them (43.4%), the draw came up 27.4% of the time and Fortaleza won 29.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.9%, while the likeliest Sport Recife win is 1-0 (11.2%). Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
| Sport Recife win | 43.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.4% |
| Fortaleza win | 29.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.9%) |
| Expected goals | 1.40 – 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.2% |
| Sport Recife score first | 52.3% |
| Fortaleza score first | 39% |
| Sport Recife clean sheet | 33.8% |
| Fortaleza clean sheet | 25.1% |
Novorizontino
Ponte Preta
3.5–0.4
xG
73%
Over 2.5
Criciúma
América Mineiro
2.1–0.6
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Botafogo SP
Ceará
1.4–1.0
xG
42%
Over 2.5
Athletic Club
Londrina
1.5–1.0
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Ponte Preta
Atlético GO
0.6–2.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Ceará
Juventude
1.2–1.0
xG
38%
Over 2.5
América Mineiro
Operário PR
1.0–1.4
xG
43%
Over 2.5
Avaí
Athletic Club
1.4–1.0
xG
42%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420534152 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Sport Recife are favourites. They win 43.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.4% for the draw and 29.2% for Fortaleza. Including the draw, Sport Recife avoid defeat 70.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.9% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (11.2%) and 0-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Sport Recife win is 1-0 (11.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Sport Recife keep a clean sheet 33.8% of the time and Fortaleza 25.1%.
The simulations average 2.49 goals: 1.40 for Sport Recife and 1.10 for Fortaleza. Over 1.5 goals lands 71.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 45.4% and over 3.5 goals 24.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
