We simulated Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians 100,000 times. Vasco da Gama won 61,285 of them (61.3%), the draw came up 22.3% of the time and Corinthians won 16.4%. The most likely score is 1-0 (12.3%), and both teams score in 47.9% of simulations.
| Vasco da Gama win | 61.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 22.3% |
| Corinthians win | 16.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-0 (12.3%) |
| Expected goals | 1.87 – 0.84 |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Vasco da Gama score first | 64.3% |
| Corinthians score first | 28.7% |
| Vasco da Gama clean sheet | 43.3% |
| Corinthians clean sheet | 15.8% |
Cruzeiro
Remo
2.5–0.9
xG
65%
Over 2.5
Mirassol
São Paulo
1.6–1.1
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Vitória
Athletico PR
1.5–1.3
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Internacional
Botafogo
1.6–1.1
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Palmeiras
Bragantino
2.1–0.9
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Chapecoense
Fluminense
1.2–1.6
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Santos
Bahia
1.9–1.2
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Coritiba
Grêmio
1.6–1.1
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493779 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Vasco da Gama are favourites. They win 61.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 22.3% for the draw and 16.4% for Corinthians. Including the draw, Vasco da Gama avoid defeat 83.6% of the time.
1-0, which came up in 12.3% of simulations. Next are 2-0 (11.5%) and 1-1 (10.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 47.9% of simulations. Vasco da Gama keep a clean sheet 43.3% of the time and Corinthians 15.8%.
The simulations average 2.71 goals: 1.87 for Vasco da Gama and 0.84 for Corinthians. Over 1.5 goals lands 75.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 50.8% and over 3.5 goals 29%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
