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Belgium
Italy
Belgium have scored 2.70 goals a game and conceded 0.70 across their last 10 home games in all competitions, while Italy have scored 2.22 and conceded 1.56 across their last 9 away games. Both teams have scored in 3 of Belgium's last 10 home games and 6 of Italy's last 9 away games. Belgium's last 10 home games have averaged 10.1 corners and Italy's last 9 away games 9.8. Stats as of 13 Nov 2026, 04:17 UK.
Belgium's last 10 home games and Italy's last 9 away games in all competitions.
From the OddAlerts probability model. See every market
Belgium vs Italy kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 15 November 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, at Stade Roi Baudouin, Brussels.
The OddAlerts probability model gives Belgium a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Italy 30%.
Belgium have scored 2.70 goals a game and conceded 0.70 across their last 10 home games in all competitions, while Italy have scored 2.22 and conceded 1.56 across their last 9 away games. Both teams have scored in 3 of Belgium's last 10 home games and 6 of Italy's last 9 away games.
Belgium are 3rd in League A Group 1 with 9 points from 5 games. Italy are 1st in League A Group 1 with 10 points from 5 games.
Belgium6W 3D 1L · 10 home games
Italy5W 3D 1L · 9 away games
| Belgium | Stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Match outcomes | ||
| 6 of 1060% | Win | 5 of 956% |
| 3 of 1030% | Draw | 3 of 933% |
| 1 of 1010% | Loss | 1 of 911% |
| 21 | Points | 18 |
| 2.10 | Points per game | 2.00 |
| 20 | Goal difference | 6 |
| Expected goals | ||
| 2.42 | xG per game | 1.89 |
| 1.07 | xGA per game | 1.42 |
| 2.76 | xG performance | 3.03 |
| Possession & attacks | ||
| 62% | Possession | 52% |
| 77.30 | Dangerous attacks | 46.78 |
| 33.60 | Dangerous attacks against | 48.11 |
| Shots | ||
| 20.60 | Shots for | 14.67 |
| 10.90 | Shots against | 13.33 |
| 7.00 | On target for | 5.11 |
| 3.80 | On target against | 5.11 |
| 13% | Shot conversion | 15% |
| 34% | On-target accuracy | 35% |
| Tackles & fouls | ||
| 14.00 | Tackles | 13.78 |
| 10.30 | Fouls committed | 13.67 |
| 12.10 | Fouls won | 11.22 |
| 1.20 | Offsides | 1.56 |
| Belgium | Stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Goals overview | ||
| 3.40 | Goals per game (total) | 3.78 |
| 27 | Goals scored | 20 |
| 2.70 | Scored per game | 2.22 |
| 7 | Goals conceded | 14 |
| 0.70 | Conceded per game | 1.56 |
| Outcomes | ||
| 5 of 1050% | Scored first | 5 of 956% |
| 3 of 1030% | Failed to score | 1 of 911% |
| 6 of 1060% | Clean sheet | 2 of 922% |
| 3 of 1030% | BTTS | 6 of 967% |
| 2 of 1020% | BTTS & over 2.5 | 4 of 944% |
| 7 of 1070% | BTTS or over 2.5 | 7 of 978% |
| Total goals | ||
| 8 of 1080% | Over 0.5 | 9 of 9100% |
| 7 of 1070% | Over 1.5 | 8 of 989% |
| 6 of 1060% | Over 2.5 | 5 of 956% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 3.5 | 4 of 944% |
| Goals scored | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Scored 1+ | 8 of 989% |
| 6 of 1060% | Scored 2+ | 5 of 956% |
| 6 of 1060% | Scored 3+ | 4 of 944% |
| Goals conceded | ||
| 4 of 1040% | Conceded 1+ | 7 of 978% |
| 2 of 1020% | Conceded 2+ | 3 of 933% |
| 1 of 1010% | Conceded 3+ | 3 of 933% |
| Belgium | Stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Half-time result | ||
| 4 of 1040% | Winning at HT | 4 of 944% |
| 4 of 1040% | Drawing at HT | 3 of 933% |
| 2 of 1020% | Losing at HT | 2 of 922% |
| Belgium | Stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Corners per game | ||
| 10.10 | Total corners | 9.78 |
| 7.00 | Corners for | 4.67 |
| 3.10 | Corners against | 5.11 |
| 7 of 1070% | Most corners | 2 of 922% |
| Match corner lines | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Over 7.5 | 9 of 9100% |
| 6 of 1060% | Over 8.5 | 4 of 944% |
| 5 of 1050% | Over 9.5 | 4 of 944% |
| 5 of 1050% | Over 10.5 | 2 of 922% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 11.5 | 2 of 922% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 12.5 | 2 of 922% |
| Corners for lines | ||
| 5 of 1050% | For over 4.5 | 2 of 922% |
| 5 of 1050% | For over 5.5 | 2 of 922% |
| 5 of 1050% | For over 6.5 | 2 of 922% |
| 4 of 1040% | For over 7.5 | 2 of 922% |
| Corners against lines | ||
| 4 of 1040% | Against over 4.5 | 6 of 967% |
| 2 of 1020% | Against over 5.5 | 6 of 967% |
| 1 of 1010% | Against over 6.5 | 2 of 922% |
| By half | ||
| 5.50 | 1H total | 4.89 |
| 3.80 | 1H for | 3.00 |
| 1.70 | 1H against | 1.89 |
| 4.60 | 2H total | 4.89 |
| 3.20 | 2H for | 1.67 |
| 1.40 | 2H against | 3.22 |
| Belgium | Stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per game | ||
| 3.90 | Total cards | 4.22 |
| 1.90 | Cards received | 1.67 |
| 2.00 | Opponent cards | 2.56 |
| 3 of 1030% | Most cards | 2 of 922% |
| Match card lines | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Over 2.5 | 7 of 978% |
| 5 of 1050% | Over 3.5 | 5 of 956% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 4.5 | 5 of 956% |
| 3 of 1030% | Over 5.5 | 4 of 944% |
| Cards received lines | ||
| 8 of 1080% | Received 1+ | 5 of 956% |
| 7 of 1070% | Received 2+ | 5 of 956% |
| 4 of 1040% | Received 3+ | 4 of 944% |
| Opponent card lines | ||
| 9 of 1090% | Opponent 1+ | 8 of 989% |
| 6 of 1060% | Opponent 2+ | 8 of 989% |
| 3 of 1030% | Opponent 3+ | 7 of 978% |
| By half | ||
| 1.80 | 1H total | 1.33 |
| 0.90 | 1H received | 0.44 |
| 2.40 | 2H total | 3.00 |
| 1.40 | 2H received | 1.33 |
| Belgium | Stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Shots & conversion | ||
| 31.50 | Total shots (match) | 28.00 |
| 10.80 | Total on target (match) | 10.22 |
| 39% | On-target conversion | 43% |
Belgium's last 10 home games and Italy's last 9 away games in all competitions. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.
Belgium6W 1D 3L · 10 games
Italy6W 2D 2L · 10 games
| Belgium | Stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Match outcomes | ||
| 6 of 1060% | Win | 6 of 1060% |
| 1 of 1010% | Draw | 2 of 1020% |
| 3 of 1030% | Loss | 2 of 1020% |
| 19 | Points | 20 |
| 1.90 | Points per game | 2.00 |
| 9 | Goal difference | 9 |
| Expected goals | ||
| 1.77 | xG per game | 2.00 |
| 1.47 | xGA per game | 1.37 |
| 3.35 | xG performance | -0.01 |
| Possession & attacks | ||
| 47% | Possession | 50% |
| 45.80 | Dangerous attacks | 48.30 |
| 61.80 | Dangerous attacks against | 55.80 |
| Shots | ||
| 16.20 | Shots for | 16.20 |
| 15.10 | Shots against | 14.60 |
| 5.90 | On target for | 5.70 |
| 5.60 | On target against | 4.90 |
| 13% | Shot conversion | 12% |
| 36% | On-target accuracy | 35% |
| Tackles & fouls | ||
| 15.20 | Tackles | 13.90 |
| 10.40 | Fouls committed | 11.50 |
| 12.00 | Fouls won | 11.80 |
| 0.90 | Offsides | 1.70 |
| Belgium | Stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Goals overview | ||
| 3.30 | Goals per game (total) | 3.10 |
| 21 | Goals scored | 20 |
| 2.10 | Scored per game | 2.00 |
| 12 | Goals conceded | 11 |
| 1.20 | Conceded per game | 1.10 |
| Outcomes | ||
| 5 of 1050% | Scored first | 7 of 1070% |
| 2 of 1020% | Failed to score | 1 of 1010% |
| 3 of 1030% | Clean sheet | 3 of 1030% |
| 6 of 1060% | BTTS | 6 of 1060% |
| 6 of 1060% | BTTS & over 2.5 | 4 of 1040% |
| 7 of 1070% | BTTS or over 2.5 | 7 of 1070% |
| Total goals | ||
| 9 of 1090% | Over 0.5 | 10 of 10100% |
| 8 of 1080% | Over 1.5 | 10 of 10100% |
| 7 of 1070% | Over 2.5 | 5 of 1050% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 3.5 | 4 of 1040% |
| Goals scored | ||
| 8 of 1080% | Scored 1+ | 9 of 1090% |
| 6 of 1060% | Scored 2+ | 6 of 1060% |
| 4 of 1040% | Scored 3+ | 4 of 1040% |
| Goals conceded | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Conceded 1+ | 7 of 1070% |
| 3 of 1030% | Conceded 2+ | 2 of 1020% |
| 1 of 1010% | Conceded 3+ | 1 of 1010% |
| Belgium | Stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Half-time result | ||
| 6 of 1060% | Winning at HT | 5 of 1050% |
| 3 of 1030% | Drawing at HT | 4 of 1040% |
| 1 of 1010% | Losing at HT | 1 of 1010% |
| Belgium | Stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Corners per game | ||
| 8.20 | Total corners | 10.70 |
| 3.90 | Corners for | 5.60 |
| 4.30 | Corners against | 5.10 |
| 6 of 1060% | Most corners | 5 of 1050% |
| Match corner lines | ||
| 5 of 1050% | Over 7.5 | 8 of 1080% |
| 3 of 1030% | Over 8.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 3 of 1030% | Over 9.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 3 of 1030% | Over 10.5 | 5 of 1050% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 11.5 | 5 of 1050% |
| 1 of 1010% | Over 12.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| Corners for lines | ||
| 3 of 1030% | For over 4.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 2 of 1020% | For over 5.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 2 of 1020% | For over 6.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| 2 of 1020% | For over 7.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| Corners against lines | ||
| 5 of 1050% | Against over 4.5 | 5 of 1050% |
| 2 of 1020% | Against over 5.5 | 5 of 1050% |
| 1 of 1010% | Against over 6.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| By half | ||
| 4.10 | 1H total | 5.30 |
| 2.20 | 1H for | 3.00 |
| 1.90 | 1H against | 2.30 |
| 4.10 | 2H total | 5.40 |
| 1.70 | 2H for | 2.60 |
| 2.40 | 2H against | 2.80 |
| Belgium | Stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per game | ||
| 3.60 | Total cards | 4.20 |
| 1.80 | Cards received | 1.90 |
| 1.80 | Opponent cards | 2.30 |
| 4 of 1040% | Most cards | 4 of 1040% |
| Match card lines | ||
| 6 of 1060% | Over 2.5 | 9 of 1090% |
| 3 of 1030% | Over 3.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 4.5 | 4 of 1040% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 5.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| Cards received lines | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Received 1+ | 8 of 1080% |
| 6 of 1060% | Received 2+ | 7 of 1070% |
| 3 of 1030% | Received 3+ | 4 of 1040% |
| Opponent card lines | ||
| 9 of 1090% | Opponent 1+ | 9 of 1090% |
| 6 of 1060% | Opponent 2+ | 8 of 1080% |
| 2 of 1020% | Opponent 3+ | 5 of 1050% |
| By half | ||
| 1.00 | 1H total | 1.10 |
| 0.60 | 1H received | 0.40 |
| 2.70 | 2H total | 3.30 |
| 1.40 | 2H received | 1.70 |
| Belgium | Stat | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Shots & conversion | ||
| 31.30 | Total shots (match) | 30.80 |
| 11.50 | Total on target (match) | 10.60 |
| 36% | On-target conversion | 35% |
Belgium's last 10 games and Italy's last 10 games in all competitions. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.
Stats as of 13 Nov 2026, 04:17 UK.
Lineups will appear here when they're predicted and confirmed. Until then, see key players.
Dodi Lukébakio
2.09
Moise Kean
1.90
Malick Fofana
1.57
Mohamed Alì Zoma
1.51
Loïs Openda
1.39
Gianluca Scamacca
1.38
Hugo Cuypers
1.33
Pio Esposito
1.20
Giacomo Raspadori
1.10
Mika Godts
1.07
Moise Kean
3.9
Dodi Lukébakio
3.9
Loïs Openda
3.7
Giacomo Raspadori
3.1
Leandro Trossard
3.1
Mohamed Alì Zoma
3.1
Gianluca Scamacca
3.0
Malick Fofana
2.9
Federico Dimarco
2.7
Mika Godts
2.5
Kevin De Bruyne
3.1
Charles De Ketelaere
3.0
Maxim De Cuyper
2.9
Jérémy Doku
2.6
Nicolò Barella
2.4
Federico Dimarco
2.3
Mika Godts
2.3
Leandro Trossard
2.1
Youri Tielemans
2.0
Sebastiano Esposito
2.0
Alessandro Bastoni
80
Brandon Mechele
79
Samuele Ricci
77
Hans Vanaken
73
Giorgio Scalvini
73
Diego Coppola
71
Nathan Ngoy
65
Roméo Lavia
62
Nicolò Barella
61
Sandro Tonali
61
Antonio Vergara
4.2
Mandela Keita
2.9
Alexis Saelemaekers
2.6
Samuele Ricci
2.6
Roméo Lavia
2.4
Brandon Mechele
2.1
Sandro Tonali
2.1
Alessandro Romano
2.1
Nicolas Raskin
1.9
Nicolò Cambiaghi
1.9
Nicolò Cambiaghi
4.1
Jérémy Doku
3.0
Loïs Openda
2.5
Mika Godts
2.4
Alexis Saelemaekers
2.3
Roméo Lavia
2.2
Youri Tielemans
2.2
Mohamed Alì Zoma
2.2
Sebastiano Esposito
2.2
Pio Esposito
2.0
Samuele Ricci
2.3
Dodi Lukébakio
2.1
Nicolò Barella
2.1
Gianluca Mancini
1.8
Sebastiano Esposito
1.8
Loïs Openda
1.8
Antonio Vergara
1.7
Gianluca Scamacca
1.7
Alessandro Romano
1.7
Nicolas Raskin
1.7
Antonio Vergara
0.59
Nicolas Raskin
0.41
Pio Esposito
0.33
Mohamed Alì Zoma
0.32
Nathan Ngoy
0.31
Alessandro Bastoni
0.28
Michael Kayode
0.27
Gianluca Scamacca
0.26
Maxim De Cuyper
0.25
Diego Moreira
0.24
Per 90 minutes, weighted towards recent games. Goalkeepers left out.
Form rating weights recent games most; the ring and bars show the percentile against players in the same role. Apps, goals and assists are this club season. For national teams, form comes from club games and the leading scorers and creators count internationals over the last 18 months.
Türkiye
2–1
win
xG 1.7–0.8
France
1–4
defeat
xG 0.6–2.4
Türkiye
3–0
win
xG 1.5–1.5
France
0–1
defeat
xG 0.9–1.5
Italy
2–0
win
xG 1.8–1.9
Spain
1–2
defeat
xG 0.6–2.0
United States
4–1
win
xG 2.2–0.6
Senegal
3–2
win
AET
xG 2.2–2.9
New Zealand
5–1
win
xG 4.3–0.4
Iran
0–0
draw
xG 2.1–0.7
Egypt
1–1
draw
xG 1.3–1.0
Tunisia
5–0
win
Croatia
2–0
win
Mexico
1–1
draw
United States
5–2
win
Liechtenstein
7–0
win
xG 3.6–0.1
Kazakhstan
1–1
draw
xG 2.3–0.4
Wales
4–2
win
xG 3.3–1.1
North Macedonia
0–0
draw
xG 3.1–0.1
Kazakhstan
6–0
win
xG 3.9–0.2
Liechtenstein
6–0
win
xG 3.8–0.0
Wales
4–3
win
xG 3.1–2.1
North Macedonia
1–1
draw
xG 2.7–0.7
Ukraine
3–0
win
xG 2.7–0.6
Ukraine
1–3
defeat
xG 0.9–2.1
Israel
0–1
defeat
xG 1.1–0.8
Italy
0–1
defeat
xG 0.8–2.6
France
1–2
defeat
xG 2.6–1.6
Italy
2–2
draw
xG 1.3–1.5
France
0–2
defeat
xG 0.8–2.3
No games match these filters.
France
3–1
win
xG 2.7–1.7
Türkiye
3–1
win
xG 1.8–1.4
France
1–1
draw
xG 1.5–1.3
Türkiye
4–1
win
xG 2.0–1.5
Belgium
0–2
defeat
xG 1.9–1.8
Greece
1–0
win
Luxembourg
1–0
win
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1–1
draw
Pens
xG 0.8–2.4
Northern Ireland
2–0
win
xG 1.4–0.7
Norway
1–4
defeat
xG 1.7–1.9
Moldova
2–0
win
xG 3.3–0.3
Israel
3–0
win
xG 2.9–0.7
Estonia
3–1
win
xG 2.5–0.9
Israel
5–4
win
xG 2.4–1.3
Estonia
5–0
win
xG 4.1–0.6
Moldova
2–0
win
xG 2.9–1.0
Norway
0–3
defeat
xG 0.4–0.9
Germany
3–3
draw
xG 1.5–3.4
Germany
1–2
defeat
xG 1.1–0.9
France
1–3
defeat
xG 1.0–0.5
Belgium
1–0
win
xG 2.6–0.8
Israel
4–1
win
xG 2.4–0.8
Belgium
2–2
draw
xG 1.5–1.3
Israel
2–1
win
xG 1.3–0.8
France
3–1
win
xG 1.3–0.9
Switzerland
0–2
defeat
Croatia
1–1
draw
Spain
0–1
defeat
Albania
2–1
win
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1–0
win
No games match these filters.
Results before kick-off, most recent first, from each team's side. Open a game to see its full stats.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italy |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 10 | |
| 2 | France |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 | |
| 3 | Belgium |
5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 | |
| 4 | Türkiye |
5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
UEFA Nations League 2026/2027 standings as of 13 Nov 2026, 05:55 UK. Last 5 shows the most recent result first.
Best price across 7 bookmakers, how it has moved since it opened, and our model's chance for each selection.
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 2.20Bet365 | Drifted 2%from 2.15 | 46% |
| Draw | 3.781xBet | Drifted 1%from 3.76 | 24% |
| Italy | 3.221xBet | Drifted 16%from 2.77 | 30% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium or Draw | 1.381xBet | Drifted 4%from 1.33 | 70% |
| Draw or Italy | 1.721xBet | Drifted 12%from 1.54 | 54% |
| Belgium or Italy | 1.301xBet | Drifted 10%from 1.18 | 76% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 1.62WilliamHill | No changefrom 1.62 | 61% |
| Italy | 2.25Bet365 | No changefrom 2.25 | 39% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 1.61Betfair Exchange | No changefrom 1.61 | 58% |
| BTTS No | 2.38Betfair Exchange | Drifted 4%from 2.30 | 42% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.24Betfair Exchange | Drifted 2%from 1.22 | 79% |
| Under 1.5 | 4.70Betfair Exchange | Drifted 12%from 4.20 | 21% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.80Bet365 | No changefrom 1.80 | 57% |
| Under 2.5 | 2.23Betfair Exchange | Drifted 1%from 2.20 | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 2.78Betfair Exchange | Drifted 1%from 2.76 | 35% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.49Betfair Exchange | Drifted 4%from 1.43 | 65% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 2.78Pinnacle | Drifted 1%from 2.75 | – |
| Draw | 2.31Pinnacle | Drifted 1%from 2.29 | – |
| Italy | 3.82Pinnacle | Drifted 1%from 3.77 | – |
Prices are decimal. Updated 13 Nov, 05:55. Gamble responsibly, 18+.
From the OddAlerts probability model before kick-off.
Belgium vs Italy predictionPredicted scores and goal markets from our match simulationTop picks, ranked by how often each leg landed in the last 10 games · 1.40+
7/10
8/10
8/10
7/10
6/10
