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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Belgium vs Italy 100,000 times. Belgium won 43,414 of them (43.4%), the draw came up 24.8% of the time and Italy won 31.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.4%, while the likeliest Belgium win is 2-1 (8.9%). Both teams score in 60.5% of simulations.
| Belgium win | 43.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.8% |
| Italy win | 31.8% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.65 – 1.38 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.1% |
| Belgium score first | 55.3% |
| Italy score first | 39.4% |
| Belgium clean sheet | 25.5% |
| Italy clean sheet | 19.6% |
Moldova
Kazakhstan
1.3–1.1
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Serbia
Germany
0.8–2.7
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Netherlands
Greece
2.1–1.1
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Slovenia
Switzerland
0.7–1.5
xG
37%
Over 2.5
Scotland
North Macedonia
2.5–0.5
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Bulgaria
Iceland
1.0–1.6
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Luxembourg
Estonia
1.1–1.0
xG
37%
Over 2.5
Slovakia
Faroe Islands
2.1–0.6
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420725785 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Belgium are favourites. They win 43.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.8% for the draw and 31.8% for Italy. Including the draw, Belgium avoid defeat 68.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.4% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.9%) and 1-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Belgium win is 2-1 (8.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 60.5% of simulations. Belgium keep a clean sheet 25.5% of the time and Italy 19.6%.
The simulations average 3.04 goals: 1.65 for Belgium and 1.38 for Italy. Over 1.5 goals lands 80.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 58.2% and over 3.5 goals 36.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.