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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Bulgaria vs Iceland 100,000 times. Iceland won 50,441 of them (50.4%), the draw came up 26.4% of the time and Bulgaria won 23.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.4%, while the likeliest Iceland win is 0-1 (12.1%). Both teams score in 48.6% of simulations.
| Bulgaria win | 23.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.4% |
| Iceland win | 50.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.4%) |
| Expected goals | 0.96 – 1.55 |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% |
| Bulgaria score first | 36.2% |
| Iceland score first | 55.2% |
| Bulgaria clean sheet | 21.6% |
| Iceland clean sheet | 38.5% |
Türkiye
Belgium
1.4–1.9
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Armenia
Cyprus
1.3–1.2
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Czech Republic
Spain
0.7–2.6
xG
63%
Over 2.5
England
Croatia
2.8–0.8
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Italy
France
1.2–1.9
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Albania
Finland
1.5–0.9
xG
43%
Over 2.5
Montenegro
Latvia
2.1–0.6
xG
51%
Over 2.5
San Marino
Belarus
0.4–2.7
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420725816 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Iceland are favourites. They win 50.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.4% for the draw and 23.2% for Bulgaria. Including the draw, Iceland avoid defeat 76.9% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.4% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (12.1%) and 0-2 (9.7%). The likeliest Iceland win is 0-1 (12.1%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 48.6% of simulations. Bulgaria keep a clean sheet 21.6% of the time and Iceland 38.5%.
The simulations average 2.51 goals: 0.96 for Bulgaria and 1.55 for Iceland. Over 1.5 goals lands 71.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 45.8% and over 3.5 goals 24.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.