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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated England vs Croatia 100,000 times. England won 76,971 of them (77%), the draw came up 14.8% of the time and Croatia won 8.2%. The most likely score is 2-0 (10.9%), and both teams score in 51.1% of simulations.
| England win | 77% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 14.8% |
| Croatia win | 8.2% |
| Most likely score | 2-0 (10.9%) |
| Expected goals | 2.72 – 0.79 |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.5% |
| England score first | 73.8% |
| Croatia score first | 22.6% |
| England clean sheet | 45.5% |
| Croatia clean sheet | 7% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420725789 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
England are favourites. They win 77% of our 100,000 simulations, against 14.8% for the draw and 8.2% for Croatia. Including the draw, England avoid defeat 91.8% of the time.
2-0, which came up in 10.9% of simulations. Next are 3-0 (9.8%) and 2-1 (8.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 51.1% of simulations. England keep a clean sheet 45.5% of the time and Croatia 7%.
The simulations average 3.52 goals: 2.72 for England and 0.79 for Croatia. Over 1.5 goals lands 86.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 67.7% and over 3.5 goals 46.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
