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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
Every UEFA Nations League match this week, played 100,000 times by our v2 engine. Win, draw and loss chances, the likeliest scores and expected goals, anchored to the sharpest betting market. For the form behind each game, see the weekend football stats.
San Marino vs Belarus
Belarus win 85.0%
Most goals expectedEngland vs Croatia
3.52 expected goals · Over 2.5 67.7%
Closest callArmenia vs Cyprus
39.7% – 26.8% – 33.6%
Türkiye
Belgium
1.4–1.8
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Armenia
Cyprus
1.3–1.2
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Czech Republic
Spain
0.6–2.6
xG
59%
Over 2.5
England
Croatia
2.7–0.8
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Italy
France
1.3–1.8
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Albania
Finland
1.4–1.0
xG
42%
Over 2.5
Montenegro
Latvia
2.0–0.7
xG
49%
Over 2.5
San Marino
Belarus
0.4–2.7
xG
59%
Over 2.5
8 UEFA Nations League matches are simulated this week, each one 100,000 times. The strongest favourites are Belarus (85% to beat San Marino), Spain (81% to beat Czech Republic) and England (77% to beat Croatia). The closest call is Armenia vs Cyprus (40% home, 27% draw, 34% away). Each match below has the likeliest scores, expected goals and goal lines.
Türkiye win 29%, draw 24%, Belgium win 47%. Most likely score 1-1.
Armenia win 40%, draw 27%, Cyprus win 34%. Most likely score 1-1.
Czech Republic win 6%, draw 13%, Spain win 81%. Most likely score 0-2.
England win 77%, draw 15%, Croatia win 8%. Most likely score 2-0.
Italy win 26%, draw 26%, France win 49%. Most likely score 1-1.
Albania win 46%, draw 30%, Finland win 25%. Most likely score 1-1.
Montenegro win 67%, draw 20%, Latvia win 13%. Most likely score 1-0.
San Marino win 4%, draw 11%, Belarus win 85%. Most likely score 0-2.
Each match starts from the prices at Betfair Exchange and Pinnacle, where the sharpest money in football sets the line.
Recent attack and defence ratings, xG, home advantage, rest days and the referee are layered on top, weighted by how much evidence there is.
A Dixon-Coles model plays the match minute by minute, with goals, corners and cards, then counts every result, score and goal line.
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420725825 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
8 UEFA Nations League matches are simulated this week, each one 100,000 times. The strongest favourites are Belarus (85% to beat San Marino), Spain (81% to beat Czech Republic) and England (77% to beat Croatia). The closest call is Armenia vs Cyprus (40% home, 27% draw, 34% away). Each match below has the likeliest scores, expected goals and goal lines.
A match simulator plays a game thousands of times using a statistical model of both teams, then counts what happened. Our engine plays every match 100,000 times, so a 62% home win means the home side won about 62,000 of those runs. It turns a hunch into a probability for every result, score and goal line.
Each match starts from the sharpest betting market available, usually Betfair Exchange or Pinnacle. Our v2 engine blends that with each team's recent attack, defence and xG numbers, adjusts for home advantage, rest, injuries and weather when they are known, and uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 are realistic. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Yes. Win, draw and loss chances, expected goals, the most likely scores, goal lines, both teams to score and a replay of a simulated match are free for every fixture. A free account unlocks every scoreline, half-time markets and unlimited replays. Pro adds corners, cards, goal timing, handicaps and value bets where the simulation disagrees with the bookmakers.
Randomness. Run a match 100 times and a 20% outcome can come up 14 or 26 times by luck. At 100,000 runs the numbers settle to within a few tenths of a percent, so differences between markets are real rather than noise.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so they follow team news and price moves. After kick-off the last pre-match run stays on the page so you can see how it compared with the result.
Yes. Every number here, plus corners, cards, timing, market comparison and the model breakdown, is available from /predictions/generate in the OddAlerts API with the Advanced plan, or a 48-hour API Day Pass.