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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Italy vs France 100,000 times. France won 48,811 of them (48.8%), the draw came up 25.6% of the time and Italy won 25.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.7%, while the likeliest France win is 1-2 (9.3%). Both teams score in 61.3% of simulations.
| Italy win | 25.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.6% |
| France win | 48.8% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.7%) |
| Expected goals | 1.28 – 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% |
| Italy score first | 44.8% |
| France score first | 49.2% |
| Italy clean sheet | 16.6% |
| France clean sheet | 28.3% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420725791 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
France are favourites. They win 48.8% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.6% for the draw and 25.6% for Italy. Including the draw, France avoid defeat 74.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.7% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest France win is 1-2 (9.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 61.3% of simulations. Italy keep a clean sheet 16.6% of the time and France 28.3%.
The simulations average 3.10 goals: 1.28 for Italy and 1.83 for France. Over 1.5 goals lands 82.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 59.7% and over 3.5 goals 37.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
