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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Moldova vs Kazakhstan 100,000 times. Kazakhstan won 35,230 of them (35.2%), the draw came up 30.7% of the time and Moldova won 34.1%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 14.3%, while the likeliest Kazakhstan win is 0-1 (10%). Both teams score in 48.7% of simulations.
| Moldova win | 34.1% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 30.7% |
| Kazakhstan win | 35.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (14.3%) |
| Expected goals | 1.16 – 1.19 |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% |
| Moldova score first | 44.1% |
| Kazakhstan score first | 44.4% |
| Moldova clean sheet | 30.9% |
| Kazakhstan clean sheet | 31.6% |
Türkiye
Belgium
1.4–1.9
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Armenia
Cyprus
1.3–1.2
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Czech Republic
Spain
0.7–2.6
xG
63%
Over 2.5
England
Croatia
2.8–0.8
xG
68%
Over 2.5
Italy
France
1.2–1.9
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Albania
Finland
1.5–0.9
xG
43%
Over 2.5
Montenegro
Latvia
2.1–0.6
xG
51%
Over 2.5
San Marino
Belarus
0.4–2.7
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420725823 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Kazakhstan are favourites. They win 35.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 30.7% for the draw and 34.1% for Moldova. Including the draw, Kazakhstan avoid defeat 65.9% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 14.3% of simulations. Next are 0-0 (11.2%) and 0-1 (10%). The likeliest Kazakhstan win is 0-1 (10%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 48.7% of simulations. Moldova keep a clean sheet 30.9% of the time and Kazakhstan 31.6%.
The simulations average 2.35 goals: 1.16 for Moldova and 1.19 for Kazakhstan. Over 1.5 goals lands 69.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 41.7% and over 3.5 goals 21.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.