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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Crewe Alexandra vs Newport County 100,000 times. Crewe Alexandra won 47,509 of them (47.5%), the draw came up 27.1% of the time and Newport County won 25.4%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.8%, while the likeliest Crewe Alexandra win is 1-0 (10.3%). Both teams score in 52.5% of simulations.
| Crewe Alexandra win | 47.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.1% |
| Newport County win | 25.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.56 – 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% |
| Crewe Alexandra score first | 52.1% |
| Newport County score first | 39.3% |
| Crewe Alexandra clean sheet | 34.4% |
| Newport County clean sheet | 21.4% |
Exeter City
Cheltenham Town
1.7–0.9
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Salford City
Northampton Town
1.9–0.8
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Colchester United
Gillingham
1.6–1.1
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Swindon Town
Grimsby Town
1.4–1.7
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Port Vale
Accrington Stanley
1.6–1.0
xG
45%
Over 2.5
Rochdale
York City
1.3–1.8
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Shrewsbury Town
Oldham Athletic
1.4–1.2
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Bristol Rovers
Chesterfield
1.5–1.4
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646694 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Crewe Alexandra are favourites. They win 47.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.1% for the draw and 25.4% for Newport County. Including the draw, Crewe Alexandra avoid defeat 74.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.8% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win is 1-0 (10.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 52.5% of simulations. Crewe Alexandra keep a clean sheet 34.4% of the time and Newport County 21.4%.
The simulations average 2.64 goals: 1.56 for Crewe Alexandra and 1.08 for Newport County. Over 1.5 goals lands 74.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 48.9% and over 3.5 goals 27.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.