We simulated Roma vs Real Madrid 100,000 times. Real Madrid won 46,489 of them (46.5%), the draw came up 24.1% of the time and Roma won 29.4%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.4%, while the likeliest Real Madrid win is 1-2 (8.9%). Both teams score in 66.6% of simulations.
| Roma win | 29.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.1% |
| Real Madrid win | 46.5% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.50 – 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 66.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.4% |
| Roma score first | 39.2% |
| Real Madrid score first | 56.3% |
| Roma clean sheet | 15.1% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 22.8% |
Sabah
Slavia Praha
1.4–1.7
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Lens
Sporting CP
1.6–1.5
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Galatasaray
FC Barcelona
1.3–3.0
xG
79%
Over 2.5
Atlético de Madrid
Manchester United
2.0–1.3
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Arsenal
LOSC Lille
2.6–0.7
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Viking
FC Bayern München
0.9–3.7
xG
83%
Over 2.5
Inter
Club Brugge
2.7–0.9
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Villarreal
Napoli
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420684484 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Real Madrid are favourites. They win 46.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.1% for the draw and 29.4% for Roma. Including the draw, Real Madrid avoid defeat 70.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.4% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.9%) and 2-1 (7%). The likeliest Real Madrid win is 1-2 (8.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 66.6% of simulations. Roma keep a clean sheet 15.1% of the time and Real Madrid 22.8%.
The simulations average 3.42 goals: 1.50 for Roma and 1.92 for Real Madrid. Over 1.5 goals lands 86.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 66% and over 3.5 goals 44.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
