We simulated São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama 100,000 times. São Paulo won 42,947 of them (43%), the draw came up 26.5% of the time and Vasco da Gama won 30.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.4%, while the likeliest São Paulo win is 1-0 (11.8%). Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
| São Paulo win | 43% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.5% |
| Vasco da Gama win | 30.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.36 – 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% |
| São Paulo score first | 53.5% |
| Vasco da Gama score first | 38.2% |
| São Paulo clean sheet | 33.5% |
| Vasco da Gama clean sheet | 25.9% |
Chapecoense
Athletico PR
1.2–1.6
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Bragantino
Cruzeiro
1.8–1.3
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Mirassol
Internacional
1.6–1.1
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Botafogo
Chapecoense
2.1–0.9
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Atlético Mineiro
Coritiba
2.3–0.9
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Athletico PR
Palmeiras
1.3–1.3
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Grêmio
Cruzeiro
1.4–1.4
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Fluminense
Santos
1.7–1.1
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493526 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
São Paulo are favourites. They win 43% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.5% for the draw and 30.6% for Vasco da Gama. Including the draw, São Paulo avoid defeat 69.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.4% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (11.8%) and 0-1 (9.6%). The likeliest São Paulo win is 1-0 (11.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. São Paulo keep a clean sheet 33.5% of the time and Vasco da Gama 25.9%.
The simulations average 2.47 goals: 1.36 for São Paulo and 1.10 for Vasco da Gama. Over 1.5 goals lands 70.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 44.6% and over 3.5 goals 23.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
