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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Birmingham City vs Millwall 100,000 times. Birmingham City won 53,120 of them (53.1%), the draw came up 24.2% of the time and Millwall won 22.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.3%, while the likeliest Birmingham City win is 2-1 (9.6%). Both teams score in 56.8% of simulations.
| Birmingham City win | 53.1% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.2% |
| Millwall win | 22.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.3%) |
| Expected goals | 1.83 – 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.2% |
| Birmingham City score first | 54% |
| Millwall score first | 39.6% |
| Birmingham City clean sheet | 32.9% |
| Millwall clean sheet | 16.4% |
Portsmouth
Swansea City
1.4–1.2
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Preston North End
Sheffield United
1.2–1.6
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Watford
Lincoln City
1.5–1.3
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Blackburn Rovers
Stoke City
1.4–1.2
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Queens Park Rangers
Burnley
1.9–1.2
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Derby County
Norwich City
1.3–1.6
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Charlton Athletic
Bolton Wanderers
1.6–1.3
xG
55%
Over 2.5
West Bromwich Albion
Southampton
1.6–1.4
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420643749 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Birmingham City are favourites. They win 53.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.2% for the draw and 22.6% for Millwall. Including the draw, Birmingham City avoid defeat 77.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.3% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Birmingham City win is 2-1 (9.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 56.8% of simulations. Birmingham City keep a clean sheet 32.9% of the time and Millwall 16.4%.
The simulations average 2.95 goals: 1.83 for Birmingham City and 1.12 for Millwall. Over 1.5 goals lands 79.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 56.4% and over 3.5 goals 34.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.