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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Derby County vs Norwich City 100,000 times. Norwich City won 44,055 of them (44.1%), the draw came up 26.7% of the time and Derby County won 29.3%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.5%, while the likeliest Norwich City win is 1-2 (9.1%). Both teams score in 58.1% of simulations.
| Derby County win | 29.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.7% |
| Norwich City win | 44.1% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.5%) |
| Expected goals | 1.27 – 1.61 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% |
| Derby County score first | 41.3% |
| Norwich City score first | 51.3% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 20.5% |
| Norwich City clean sheet | 28.5% |
Portsmouth
Swansea City
1.4–1.2
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Preston North End
Sheffield United
1.2–1.6
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Watford
Lincoln City
1.5–1.3
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Blackburn Rovers
Stoke City
1.4–1.2
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Queens Park Rangers
Burnley
1.9–1.2
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Charlton Athletic
Bolton Wanderers
1.6–1.3
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Birmingham City
Millwall
1.8–1.1
xG
56%
Over 2.5
West Bromwich Albion
Southampton
1.6–1.4
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420643983 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Norwich City are favourites. They win 44.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.7% for the draw and 29.3% for Derby County. Including the draw, Norwich City avoid defeat 70.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.5% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-1 (8%). The likeliest Norwich City win is 1-2 (9.1%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 58.1% of simulations. Derby County keep a clean sheet 20.5% of the time and Norwich City 28.5%.
The simulations average 2.87 goals: 1.27 for Derby County and 1.61 for Norwich City. Over 1.5 goals lands 78.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 54.6% and over 3.5 goals 32.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.