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Simulations V2 Sign Up Fixed
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VigShift Beta Now Open on OddAlerts!
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VigShift watches the sharp market on every match. When informed money hits a price and it drops fast, you get a push within a second, with …
For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Birmingham City vs Swansea City 100,000 times. Birmingham City won 51,862 of them (51.9%), the draw came up 24.6% of the time and Swansea City won 23.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.5%, while the likeliest Birmingham City win is 2-1 (9.5%). Both teams score in 56.4% of simulations.
| Birmingham City win | 51.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Swansea City win | 23.5% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.5%) |
| Expected goals | 1.78 – 1.13 |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% |
| Birmingham City score first | 58.5% |
| Swansea City score first | 35.3% |
| Birmingham City clean sheet | 32.7% |
| Swansea City clean sheet | 17.3% |
Portsmouth
Swansea City
1.4–1.2
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Preston North End
Sheffield United
1.2–1.6
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Watford
Lincoln City
1.5–1.3
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Blackburn Rovers
Stoke City
1.4–1.2
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Queens Park Rangers
Burnley
1.9–1.2
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Derby County
Norwich City
1.3–1.6
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Charlton Athletic
Bolton Wanderers
1.6–1.3
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Birmingham City
Millwall
1.8–1.1
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420644014 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Birmingham City are favourites. They win 51.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.6% for the draw and 23.5% for Swansea City. Including the draw, Birmingham City avoid defeat 76.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.5% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (9.1%). The likeliest Birmingham City win is 2-1 (9.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 56.4% of simulations. Birmingham City keep a clean sheet 32.7% of the time and Swansea City 17.3%.
The simulations average 2.91 goals: 1.78 for Birmingham City and 1.13 for Swansea City. Over 1.5 goals lands 79% of the time, over 2.5 goals 55.4% and over 3.5 goals 33.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.