Dropping Odds Page Enhanced
1 Nov 2026
We continue to update core tools on the site to match our new design language, and next up is the Dropping Odds page. The table of dropping…
Simulations V2 Sign Up Fixed
30 Oct 2026
The API add-on that launched recently allowing you to add the new simulations engine to your project had a small bug impacting the sign up …
New Predictions Show Episode Live!
30 Oct 2026
Another cracking weekend ahead and founder Joe has it covered. Arsenal away at Liverpool with the hosts an incredible price for the victory…
VigShift Beta Now Open on OddAlerts!
30 Oct 2026
VigShift watches the sharp market on every match. When informed money hits a price and it drops fast, you get a push within a second, with …
For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Manchester United vs Aston Villa 100,000 times. Manchester United won 42,727 of them (42.7%), the draw came up 24.4% of the time and Aston Villa won 32.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.8%, while the likeliest Manchester United win is 2-1 (8.7%). Both teams score in 64.5% of simulations.
| Manchester United win | 42.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.4% |
| Aston Villa win | 32.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.75 – 1.51 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% |
| Manchester United score first | 50.7% |
| Aston Villa score first | 44.6% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 22.5% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 17.8% |
Everton
Coventry City
1.9–1.0
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Leeds United
Tottenham Hotspur
1.3–1.2
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Arsenal
Hull City
2.6–0.5
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Fulham
Newcastle United
1.9–1.4
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
1.1–1.7
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brentford
2.0–1.2
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Sunderland
Chelsea
1.3–1.5
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Ipswich Town
AFC Bournemouth
1.2–1.7
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665967 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Manchester United are favourites. They win 42.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.4% for the draw and 32.9% for Aston Villa. Including the draw, Manchester United avoid defeat 67.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.8% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.7%) and 1-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Manchester United win is 2-1 (8.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 64.5% of simulations. Manchester United keep a clean sheet 22.5% of the time and Aston Villa 17.8%.
The simulations average 3.26 goals: 1.75 for Manchester United and 1.51 for Aston Villa. Over 1.5 goals lands 84% of the time, over 2.5 goals 62.9% and over 3.5 goals 41%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.