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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Aston Villa vs Fulham 100,000 times. Aston Villa won 47,077 of them (47.1%), the draw came up 26.1% of the time and Fulham won 26.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.3%, while the likeliest Aston Villa win is 2-1 (9.3%). Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
| Aston Villa win | 47.1% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.1% |
| Fulham win | 26.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.3%) |
| Expected goals | 1.63 – 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.1% |
| Aston Villa score first | 52.4% |
| Fulham score first | 40.7% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 31.1% |
| Fulham clean sheet | 19.9% |
Chelsea
Manchester United
1.9–1.2
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Manchester City
Brighton & Hove Albion
2.2–1.3
xG
69%
Over 2.5
AFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
1.5–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Brentford
Nottingham Forest
1.7–1.3
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Coventry City
Sunderland
1.3–1.4
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Ipswich Town
1.5–1.3
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Tottenham Hotspur
Crystal Palace
2.0–1.0
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Liverpool
Arsenal
1.3–1.5
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665669 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Aston Villa are favourites. They win 47.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.1% for the draw and 26.9% for Fulham. Including the draw, Aston Villa avoid defeat 73.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.3% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-0 (9.1%). The likeliest Aston Villa win is 2-1 (9.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet 31.1% of the time and Fulham 19.9%.
The simulations average 2.81 goals: 1.63 for Aston Villa and 1.18 for Fulham. Over 1.5 goals lands 77.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 53.1% and over 3.5 goals 31.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.