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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Liverpool vs Arsenal 100,000 times. Arsenal won 41,187 of them (41.2%), the draw came up 27.2% of the time and Liverpool won 31.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.8%, while the likeliest Arsenal win is 1-2 (8.7%). Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
| Liverpool win | 31.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.2% |
| Arsenal win | 41.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.27 – 1.48 |
| Both teams to score | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.8% |
| Liverpool score first | 44.1% |
| Arsenal score first | 48.7% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 23.1% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 28.4% |
Chelsea
Manchester United
1.9–1.2
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Manchester City
Brighton & Hove Albion
2.2–1.3
xG
69%
Over 2.5
AFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
1.5–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Brentford
Nottingham Forest
1.7–1.3
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Coventry City
Sunderland
1.3–1.4
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Ipswich Town
1.5–1.3
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Tottenham Hotspur
Crystal Palace
2.0–1.0
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Fulham
1.6–1.2
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665721 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Arsenal are favourites. They win 41.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.2% for the draw and 31.7% for Liverpool. Including the draw, Arsenal avoid defeat 68.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.8% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-1 (8.6%). The likeliest Arsenal win is 1-2 (8.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Liverpool keep a clean sheet 23.1% of the time and Arsenal 28.4%.
The simulations average 2.75 goals: 1.27 for Liverpool and 1.48 for Arsenal. Over 1.5 goals lands 76.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 51.7% and over 3.5 goals 29.8%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.