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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Atlético de Madrid vs FC Barcelona 100,000 times. FC Barcelona won 46,891 of them (46.9%), the draw came up 23.4% of the time and Atlético de Madrid won 29.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 9.8%, while the likeliest FC Barcelona win is 1-2 (8.7%). Both teams score in 69% of simulations.
| Atlético de Madrid win | 29.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.4% |
| FC Barcelona win | 46.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (9.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.57 – 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 69% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.9% |
| Atlético de Madrid score first | 39% |
| FC Barcelona score first | 57.1% |
| Atlético de Madrid clean sheet | 13.9% |
| FC Barcelona clean sheet | 21.1% |
Sevilla
Deportivo Alavés
1.7–0.9
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Málaga
Racing Santander
1.8–1.4
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Espanyol
Deportivo A Coruña
1.4–1.3
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Osasuna
Athletic Club
1.2–1.4
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Valencia
Real Madrid
0.9–2.4
xG
64%
Over 2.5
Elche
Real Betis
1.4–1.6
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Real Sociedad
Rayo Vallecano
2.1–1.1
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Villarreal
Getafe
2.0–0.8
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420654494 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
FC Barcelona are favourites. They win 46.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.4% for the draw and 29.7% for Atlético de Madrid. Including the draw, FC Barcelona avoid defeat 70.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 9.8% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.7%) and 2-1 (6.8%). The likeliest FC Barcelona win is 1-2 (8.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 69% of simulations. Atlético de Madrid keep a clean sheet 13.9% of the time and FC Barcelona 21.1%.
The simulations average 3.58 goals: 1.57 for Atlético de Madrid and 2.01 for FC Barcelona. Over 1.5 goals lands 87.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 69% and over 3.5 goals 47.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.