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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Chapecoense vs Mirassol 100,000 times. Mirassol won 38,636 of them (38.6%), the draw came up 25.8% of the time and Chapecoense won 35.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12%, while the likeliest Mirassol win is 1-2 (8.4%). Both teams score in 58.4% of simulations.
| Chapecoense win | 35.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.8% |
| Mirassol win | 38.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12%) |
| Expected goals | 1.41 – 1.48 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Chapecoense score first | 44% |
| Mirassol score first | 49.7% |
| Chapecoense clean sheet | 23.2% |
| Mirassol clean sheet | 24.8% |
Atlético Mineiro
Cruzeiro
1.6–1.5
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Vasco da Gama
Flamengo
1.1–1.6
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Grêmio
Athletico PR
1.6–1.3
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Corinthians
Mirassol
1.7–1.0
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Coritiba
Vitória
1.5–1.1
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Bragantino
Santos
1.9–1.3
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Internacional
Coritiba
2.1–0.9
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Athletico PR
Vasco da Gama
1.6–1.1
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493568 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Mirassol are favourites. They win 38.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.8% for the draw and 35.6% for Chapecoense. Including the draw, Mirassol avoid defeat 64.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.4%) and 2-1 (8%). The likeliest Mirassol win is 1-2 (8.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 58.4% of simulations. Chapecoense keep a clean sheet 23.2% of the time and Mirassol 24.8%.
The simulations average 2.90 goals: 1.41 for Chapecoense and 1.48 for Mirassol. Over 1.5 goals lands 78.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 55% and over 3.5 goals 33%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Bet365), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.