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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Grêmio vs Athletico PR 100,000 times. Grêmio won 42,240 of them (42.2%), the draw came up 27.4% of the time and Athletico PR won 30.4%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.9%, while the likeliest Grêmio win is 2-1 (8.9%). Both teams score in 57.5% of simulations.
| Grêmio win | 42.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.4% |
| Athletico PR win | 30.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.9%) |
| Expected goals | 1.55 – 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.4% |
| Grêmio score first | 51.1% |
| Athletico PR score first | 41.4% |
| Grêmio clean sheet | 28.2% |
| Athletico PR clean sheet | 21.7% |
Atlético Mineiro
Cruzeiro
1.6–1.5
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Vasco da Gama
Flamengo
1.1–1.6
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Corinthians
Mirassol
1.7–1.0
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Coritiba
Vitória
1.5–1.1
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Bragantino
Santos
1.9–1.3
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Chapecoense
Mirassol
1.4–1.5
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Internacional
Coritiba
2.1–0.9
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Athletico PR
Vasco da Gama
1.6–1.1
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493569 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Grêmio are favourites. They win 42.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.4% for the draw and 30.4% for Athletico PR. Including the draw, Grêmio avoid defeat 69.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.9% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.9%) and 1-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Grêmio win is 2-1 (8.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 57.5% of simulations. Grêmio keep a clean sheet 28.2% of the time and Athletico PR 21.7%.
The simulations average 2.83 goals: 1.55 for Grêmio and 1.28 for Athletico PR. Over 1.5 goals lands 78.3% of the time, over 2.5 goals 53.5% and over 3.5 goals 31.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.