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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers 100,000 times. Derby County won 40,501 of them (40.5%), the draw came up 25.5% of the time and Bolton Wanderers won 34%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.8%, while the likeliest Derby County win is 2-1 (8.6%). Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
| Derby County win | 40.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.5% |
| Bolton Wanderers win | 34% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.57 – 1.42 |
| Both teams to score | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.9% |
| Derby County score first | 46.9% |
| Bolton Wanderers score first | 47.2% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 24.7% |
| Bolton Wanderers clean sheet | 21.3% |
Portsmouth
Swansea City
1.4–1.2
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Preston North End
Sheffield United
1.2–1.6
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Watford
Lincoln City
1.5–1.3
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Blackburn Rovers
Stoke City
1.4–1.2
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Queens Park Rangers
Burnley
1.9–1.2
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Derby County
Norwich City
1.3–1.6
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Charlton Athletic
Bolton Wanderers
1.6–1.3
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Birmingham City
Millwall
1.8–1.1
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420644067 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Derby County are favourites. They win 40.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.5% for the draw and 34% for Bolton Wanderers. Including the draw, Derby County avoid defeat 66% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.8% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.6%) and 1-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Derby County win is 2-1 (8.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Derby County keep a clean sheet 24.7% of the time and Bolton Wanderers 21.3%.
The simulations average 2.98 goals: 1.57 for Derby County and 1.42 for Bolton Wanderers. Over 1.5 goals lands 80.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 57.1% and over 3.5 goals 34.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.