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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Lincoln City vs Birmingham City 100,000 times. Birmingham City won 44,497 of them (44.5%), the draw came up 26.8% of the time and Lincoln City won 28.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.6%, while the likeliest Birmingham City win is 1-2 (9%). Both teams score in 56.2% of simulations.
| Lincoln City win | 28.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.8% |
| Birmingham City win | 44.5% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.22 – 1.57 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% |
| Lincoln City score first | 44.2% |
| Birmingham City score first | 48.4% |
| Lincoln City clean sheet | 21.2% |
| Birmingham City clean sheet | 30% |
Sheffield United
Wrexham
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Stoke City
Preston North End
1.8–0.9
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Norwich City
Watford
2.1–1.0
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Swansea City
Blackburn Rovers
1.7–1.0
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Cardiff City
2.0–1.1
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Bolton Wanderers
Bristol City
1.3–1.6
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Millwall
Derby County
1.9–1.0
xG
54%
Over 2.5
West Ham United
West Bromwich Albion
2.1–1.1
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420644036 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Birmingham City are favourites. They win 44.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.8% for the draw and 28.7% for Lincoln City. Including the draw, Birmingham City avoid defeat 71.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.6% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (8.7%). The likeliest Birmingham City win is 1-2 (9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 56.2% of simulations. Lincoln City keep a clean sheet 21.2% of the time and Birmingham City 30%.
The simulations average 2.79 goals: 1.22 for Lincoln City and 1.57 for Birmingham City. Over 1.5 goals lands 77.3% of the time, over 2.5 goals 52.5% and over 3.5 goals 30.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.