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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Millwall vs Derby County 100,000 times. Millwall won 57,370 of them (57.4%), the draw came up 23.5% of the time and Derby County won 19.1%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.1%, while the likeliest Millwall win is 1-0 (10.1%). Both teams score in 53.3% of simulations.
| Millwall win | 57.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.5% |
| Derby County win | 19.1% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.88 – 0.99 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% |
| Millwall score first | 62.8% |
| Derby County score first | 30.8% |
| Millwall clean sheet | 37.5% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 15.7% |
Sheffield United
Wrexham
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Stoke City
Preston North End
1.8–0.9
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Lincoln City
Birmingham City
1.2–1.6
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Norwich City
Watford
2.1–1.0
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Swansea City
Blackburn Rovers
1.7–1.0
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Cardiff City
2.0–1.1
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Bolton Wanderers
Bristol City
1.3–1.6
xG
55%
Over 2.5
West Ham United
West Bromwich Albion
2.1–1.1
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420643836 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Millwall are favourites. They win 57.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.5% for the draw and 19.1% for Derby County. Including the draw, Millwall avoid defeat 80.9% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.1% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (10.1%) and 2-0 (9.9%). The likeliest Millwall win is 1-0 (10.1%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.3% of simulations. Millwall keep a clean sheet 37.5% of the time and Derby County 15.7%.
The simulations average 2.87 goals: 1.88 for Millwall and 0.99 for Derby County. Over 1.5 goals lands 78.3% of the time, over 2.5 goals 54.4% and over 3.5 goals 32.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.