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Mozambique
Ethiopia
Mozambique have scored 1.44 goals a game and conceded 1.22 across their last 9 home games in all competitions, while Ethiopia have scored 1.00 and conceded 1.57 across their last 7 away games. Both teams have scored in 6 of Mozambique's last 9 home games and 3 of Ethiopia's last 7 away games. Mozambique's last 9 home games have averaged 9.6 corners and Ethiopia's last 7 away games 5.9. Stats as of 12 Nov 2026, 20:19 UK.
Mozambique's last 9 home games and Ethiopia's last 7 away games in all competitions.
From the OddAlerts probability model. See every market
Mozambique vs Ethiopia kicks off at 13:00 UK time on Friday 13 November 2026 in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications, at Estádio Nacional do Zimpeto, Maputo.
The OddAlerts probability model gives Mozambique a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ethiopia 19%.
Mozambique have scored 1.44 goals a game and conceded 1.22 across their last 9 home games in all competitions, while Ethiopia have scored 1.00 and conceded 1.57 across their last 7 away games. Both teams have scored in 6 of Mozambique's last 9 home games and 3 of Ethiopia's last 7 away games.
Mozambique are 2nd in Group J with 4 points from 2 games. Ethiopia are 4th in Group J with 0 points from 2 games.
Mozambique3W 2D 4L · 9 home games
Ethiopia2W 0D 5L · 7 away games
| Mozambique | Stat | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| Match outcomes | ||
| 3 of 933% | Win | 2 of 729% |
| 2 of 922% | Draw | 0 of 70% |
| 4 of 944% | Loss | 5 of 771% |
| 11 | Points | 6 |
| 1.22 | Points per game | 0.86 |
| 2 | Goal difference | -4 |
| Expected goals | ||
| 0.23 | xG per game | 0.08 |
| 0.28 | xGA per game | 0.25 |
| 10.91 | xG performance | 6.43 |
| Possession & attacks | ||
| 55% | Possession | 38% |
| 51.56 | Dangerous attacks | 21.71 |
| 50.11 | Dangerous attacks against | 55.14 |
| Shots | ||
| 9.22 | Shots for | 4.14 |
| 9.11 | Shots against | 9.43 |
| 3.22 | On target for | 1.57 |
| 3.56 | On target against | 3.29 |
| 16% | Shot conversion | 24% |
| 35% | On-target accuracy | 38% |
| Tackles & fouls | ||
| 6.56 | Tackles | 4.29 |
| 13.44 | Fouls committed | 4.57 |
| 8.67 | Fouls won | 5.86 |
| 1.44 | Offsides | 0.86 |
| Mozambique | Stat | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals overview | ||
| 2.67 | Goals per game (total) | 2.57 |
| 13 | Goals scored | 7 |
| 1.44 | Scored per game | 1.00 |
| 11 | Goals conceded | 11 |
| 1.22 | Conceded per game | 1.57 |
| Outcomes | ||
| 4 of 944% | Scored first | 2 of 729% |
| 2 of 922% | Failed to score | 3 of 743% |
| 2 of 922% | Clean sheet | 1 of 714% |
| 6 of 967% | BTTS | 3 of 743% |
| 5 of 956% | BTTS & over 2.5 | 3 of 743% |
| 6 of 967% | BTTS or over 2.5 | 4 of 757% |
| Total goals | ||
| 8 of 989% | Over 0.5 | 7 of 7100% |
| 7 of 978% | Over 1.5 | 6 of 786% |
| 5 of 956% | Over 2.5 | 4 of 757% |
| 3 of 933% | Over 3.5 | 1 of 714% |
| Goals scored | ||
| 7 of 978% | Scored 1+ | 4 of 757% |
| 3 of 933% | Scored 2+ | 2 of 729% |
| 2 of 922% | Scored 3+ | 1 of 714% |
| Goals conceded | ||
| 7 of 978% | Conceded 1+ | 6 of 786% |
| 3 of 933% | Conceded 2+ | 4 of 757% |
| 1 of 911% | Conceded 3+ | 1 of 714% |
| Mozambique | Stat | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| Half-time result | ||
| 3 of 933% | Winning at HT | 2 of 729% |
| 4 of 944% | Drawing at HT | 2 of 729% |
| 2 of 922% | Losing at HT | 3 of 743% |
| Mozambique | Stat | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| Corners per game | ||
| 9.56 | Total corners | 5.86 |
| 4.56 | Corners for | 1.86 |
| 5.00 | Corners against | 4.00 |
| 4 of 944% | Most corners | 0 of 70% |
| Match corner lines | ||
| 8 of 989% | Over 7.5 | 3 of 743% |
| 7 of 978% | Over 8.5 | 3 of 743% |
| 6 of 967% | Over 9.5 | 2 of 729% |
| 2 of 922% | Over 10.5 | 1 of 714% |
| 0 of 90% | Over 11.5 | 1 of 714% |
| 0 of 90% | Over 12.5 | 0 of 70% |
| Corners for lines | ||
| 6 of 967% | For over 4.5 | 1 of 714% |
| 2 of 922% | For over 5.5 | 0 of 70% |
| 2 of 922% | For over 6.5 | 0 of 70% |
| 1 of 911% | For over 7.5 | 0 of 70% |
| Corners against lines | ||
| 5 of 956% | Against over 4.5 | 3 of 743% |
| 3 of 933% | Against over 5.5 | 2 of 729% |
| 2 of 922% | Against over 6.5 | 2 of 729% |
| By half | ||
| 3.89 | 1H total | 2.29 |
| 2.11 | 1H for | 0.43 |
| 1.78 | 1H against | 1.86 |
| 5.67 | 2H total | 2.14 |
| 2.44 | 2H for | 0.71 |
| 3.22 | 2H against | 1.43 |
| Mozambique | Stat | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per game | ||
| 3.56 | Total cards | 1.86 |
| 1.44 | Cards received | 1.43 |
| 2.11 | Opponent cards | 0.43 |
| 2 of 922% | Most cards | 3 of 743% |
| Match card lines | ||
| 7 of 978% | Over 2.5 | 2 of 729% |
| 5 of 956% | Over 3.5 | 2 of 729% |
| 4 of 944% | Over 4.5 | 1 of 714% |
| 1 of 911% | Over 5.5 | 0 of 70% |
| Cards received lines | ||
| 6 of 967% | Received 1+ | 4 of 757% |
| 6 of 967% | Received 2+ | 3 of 743% |
| 1 of 911% | Received 3+ | 2 of 729% |
| Opponent card lines | ||
| 9 of 9100% | Opponent 1+ | 3 of 743% |
| 7 of 978% | Opponent 2+ | 0 of 70% |
| 4 of 944% | Opponent 3+ | 0 of 70% |
| By half | ||
| 1.00 | 1H total | 1.43 |
| 0.44 | 1H received | 1.00 |
| 2.56 | 2H total | 1.14 |
| 1.00 | 2H received | 0.86 |
| Mozambique | Stat | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| Shots & conversion | ||
| 18.33 | Total shots (match) | 13.57 |
| 6.78 | Total on target (match) | 4.86 |
| 45% | On-target conversion | 64% |
Mozambique's last 9 home games and Ethiopia's last 7 away games in all competitions. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.
Mozambique4W 1D 5L · 10 games
Ethiopia4W 0D 6L · 10 games
| Mozambique | Stat | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| Match outcomes | ||
| 4 of 1040% | Win | 4 of 1040% |
| 1 of 1010% | Draw | 0 of 100% |
| 5 of 1050% | Loss | 6 of 1060% |
| 13 | Points | 12 |
| 1.30 | Points per game | 1.20 |
| -4 | Goal difference | 0 |
| Expected goals | ||
| 0.32 | xG per game | 0.00 |
| 0.83 | xGA per game | 0.00 |
| 9.75 | xG performance | 12.00 |
| Possession & attacks | ||
| 48% | Possession | 46% |
| 32.40 | Dangerous attacks | 34.30 |
| 53.30 | Dangerous attacks against | 63.20 |
| Shots | ||
| 6.80 | Shots for | 6.20 |
| 11.70 | Shots against | 9.30 |
| 2.40 | On target for | 2.70 |
| 4.60 | On target against | 3.90 |
| 19% | Shot conversion | 19% |
| 35% | On-target accuracy | 44% |
| Tackles & fouls | ||
| 8.90 | Tackles | 1.80 |
| 16.60 | Fouls committed | 5.10 |
| 9.50 | Fouls won | 6.90 |
| 1.70 | Offsides | 1.70 |
| Mozambique | Stat | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals overview | ||
| 3.00 | Goals per game (total) | 2.40 |
| 13 | Goals scored | 12 |
| 1.30 | Scored per game | 1.20 |
| 17 | Goals conceded | 12 |
| 1.70 | Conceded per game | 1.20 |
| Outcomes | ||
| 5 of 1050% | Scored first | 4 of 1040% |
| 3 of 1030% | Failed to score | 5 of 1050% |
| 2 of 1020% | Clean sheet | 3 of 1030% |
| 5 of 1050% | BTTS | 2 of 1020% |
| 4 of 1040% | BTTS & over 2.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| 7 of 1070% | BTTS or over 2.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| Total goals | ||
| 10 of 10100% | Over 0.5 | 10 of 10100% |
| 8 of 1080% | Over 1.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 6 of 1060% | Over 2.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 3.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| Goals scored | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Scored 1+ | 5 of 1050% |
| 3 of 1030% | Scored 2+ | 2 of 1020% |
| 2 of 1020% | Scored 3+ | 2 of 1020% |
| Goals conceded | ||
| 8 of 1080% | Conceded 1+ | 7 of 1070% |
| 5 of 1050% | Conceded 2+ | 4 of 1040% |
| 2 of 1020% | Conceded 3+ | 1 of 1010% |
| Mozambique | Stat | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| Half-time result | ||
| 4 of 1040% | Winning at HT | 4 of 1040% |
| 5 of 1050% | Drawing at HT | 2 of 1020% |
| 1 of 1010% | Losing at HT | 4 of 1040% |
| Mozambique | Stat | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| Corners per game | ||
| 9.40 | Total corners | 6.50 |
| 3.00 | Corners for | 2.60 |
| 6.40 | Corners against | 3.90 |
| 2 of 1020% | Most corners | 2 of 1020% |
| Match corner lines | ||
| 8 of 1080% | Over 7.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 7 of 1070% | Over 8.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 6 of 1060% | Over 9.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 10.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 1 of 1010% | Over 11.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 0 of 100% | Over 12.5 | 0 of 100% |
| Corners for lines | ||
| 3 of 1030% | For over 4.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| 1 of 1010% | For over 5.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 1 of 1010% | For over 6.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 0 of 100% | For over 7.5 | 0 of 100% |
| Corners against lines | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Against over 4.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 5 of 1050% | Against over 5.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| 4 of 1040% | Against over 6.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| By half | ||
| 4.60 | 1H total | 3.00 |
| 2.00 | 1H for | 0.90 |
| 2.60 | 1H against | 2.10 |
| 4.80 | 2H total | 2.50 |
| 1.00 | 2H for | 1.20 |
| 3.80 | 2H against | 1.30 |
| Mozambique | Stat | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per game | ||
| 3.00 | Total cards | 2.30 |
| 1.10 | Cards received | 1.30 |
| 1.90 | Opponent cards | 1.00 |
| 2 of 1020% | Most cards | 4 of 1040% |
| Match card lines | ||
| 6 of 1060% | Over 2.5 | 5 of 1050% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 3.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 1 of 1010% | Over 4.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| 0 of 100% | Over 5.5 | 0 of 100% |
| Cards received lines | ||
| 6 of 1060% | Received 1+ | 7 of 1070% |
| 4 of 1040% | Received 2+ | 3 of 1030% |
| 1 of 1010% | Received 3+ | 2 of 1020% |
| Opponent card lines | ||
| 10 of 10100% | Opponent 1+ | 6 of 1060% |
| 7 of 1070% | Opponent 2+ | 2 of 1020% |
| 2 of 1020% | Opponent 3+ | 1 of 1010% |
| By half | ||
| 1.10 | 1H total | 1.10 |
| 0.40 | 1H received | 0.70 |
| 2.30 | 2H total | 1.80 |
| 0.70 | 2H received | 1.00 |
| Mozambique | Stat | Ethiopia |
|---|---|---|
| Shots & conversion | ||
| 18.50 | Total shots (match) | 15.50 |
| 7.00 | Total on target (match) | 6.60 |
| 54% | On-target conversion | 44% |
Mozambique's last 10 games and Ethiopia's last 10 games in all competitions. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.
Stats as of 12 Nov 2026, 20:19 UK.
Lineups will appear here when they're predicted and confirmed.
Last 5 results in all competitions before kick-off, most recent first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Senegal |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 | |
| 2 | Mozambique |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 4 | |
| 3 |  Sudan |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 | |
| 4 | Ethiopia |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications 2027 standings as of 12 Nov 2026, 22:51 UK. Last 5 shows the most recent result first.
Best price across 8 bookmakers, how it has moved since it opened, and our model's chance for each selection.
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mozambique | 1.62Betfair Exchange | Drifted 4%from 1.56 | 57% |
| Draw | 4.00Betfair Exchange | Drifted 25%from 3.20 | 24% |
| Ethiopia | 7.20Betfair Exchange | Drifted 24%from 5.80 | 19% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mozambique or Draw | 1.12WilliamHill | No changefrom 1.12 | 81% |
| Draw or Ethiopia | 2.321xBet | Shortened 1%from 2.34 | 44% |
| Mozambique or Ethiopia | 1.29WilliamHill | Shortened 1%from 1.30 | 76% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mozambique | 1.20Bet365 | Drifted 3%from 1.16 | 75% |
| Ethiopia | 4.33Bet365 | Shortened 4%from 4.50 | 25% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 2.25Kambi Group | No changefrom 2.25 | 47% |
| BTTS No | 1.72Betfair Exchange | Drifted 7%from 1.61 | 53% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.41Betfair Exchange | Shortened 2%from 1.44 | 71% |
| Under 1.5 | 3.15Betfair Exchange | Drifted 3%from 3.05 | 29% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.23Kambi Group | No changefrom 2.23 | 47% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.74Betfair Exchange | Drifted 10%from 1.58 | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 4.30Kambi Group | No changefrom 4.30 | 25% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.27Betfair Exchange | Drifted 2%from 1.24 | 75% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mozambique | 2.10Bet365 | No changefrom 2.10 | – |
| Draw | 2.20Pinnacle | Drifted 4%from 2.12 | – |
| Ethiopia | 6.671xBet | Shortened 10%from 7.39 | – |
Prices are decimal. Updated 12 Nov, 22:47. Gamble responsibly, 18+.
From the OddAlerts probability model before kick-off.
Mozambique vs Ethiopia predictionPredicted scores and goal markets from our match simulation