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  1. Simulations
  2. Mozambique vs Ethiopia
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications · 100,000 simulations

Mozambique vs Ethiopia prediction

We simulated Mozambique vs Ethiopia 100,000 times. Mozambique won 59,393 of them (59.4%), the draw came up 25.6% of the time and Ethiopia won 15%. The most likely score is 1-0 (14.1%), and both teams score in 42.7% of simulations.

Mozambique badge
Mozambique Estádio Nacional do Zimpeto
Tomorrow
Ethiopia badge
Ethiopia Away
59.4% 59,393 wins
25.6% Draw
15% 14,987 wins
Expected goals
1.69 – 0.73
Likeliest score
1-0 14.1%
Both score
42.7%
Over 2.5
43.4%
Simulated 100,000 times Updated Arima Mohamed Moustapha Akakpo Estádio Nacional do Zimpeto, Maputo

Mozambique vs Ethiopia in numbers 100,000 simulations · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications · Tomorrow, 13:00

Mozambique vs Ethiopia simulation probabilities
Mozambique win59.4%
Draw25.6%
Ethiopia win15%
Most likely score1-0 (14.1%)
Expected goals1.69 – 0.73
Both teams to score42.7%
Over 1.5 goals70.1%
Over 2.5 goals43.4%
Over 3.5 goals22.7%
Mozambique score first63%
Ethiopia score first26.6%
Mozambique clean sheet48.6%
Ethiopia clean sheet18.8%
Football simulation API

Put this simulation in your own models

Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

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GET /api/predictions/generate/420728706
  ?v=2
  &detail=standard
  &include=value,corners,cards

# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Mozambique vs Ethiopia prediction FAQs

Who will win Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

Mozambique are favourites. They win 59.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.6% for the draw and 15% for Ethiopia. Including the draw, Mozambique avoid defeat 85% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

1-0, which came up in 14.1% of simulations. Next are 2-0 (12.6%) and 1-1 (11.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

Both teams score in 42.7% of simulations. Mozambique keep a clean sheet 48.6% of the time and Ethiopia 18.8%.

How many goals will there be in Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

The simulations average 2.42 goals: 1.69 for Mozambique and 0.73 for Ethiopia. Over 1.5 goals lands 70.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 43.4% and over 3.5 goals 22.7%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.