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Mali vs Rwanda

Mali host Rwanda in the Africa Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications on Friday 13 November 2026, kick-off 19:00. Our model makes Mali favourites at 61%, with a 23% chance of a draw. In their last 4 meetings, Mali won 3, Rwanda won 0 and 1 was drawn.

Africa Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications Save
Mali
19:00
13 Nov
Rwanda
Stade 26 Mars, Bamako Referee: Messie Nkounkou

Mali vs Rwanda preview

Mali have scored 2.25 goals a game and conceded 0.63 across their last 8 home games in all competitions, while Rwanda have scored 1.17 and conceded 1.50 across their last 6 away games. Both teams have scored in 4 of Mali's last 8 home games and 3 of Rwanda's last 6 away games. Over 3.5 cards has landed in 5 of Rwanda's last 6 away games. Mali's last 8 home games have averaged 7.3 corners and Rwanda's last 6 away games 6.5. Stats as of 12 Nov 2026, 20:27 UK.

  • Goals scored Mali: 2.25 Rwanda: 1.17
  • Goals conceded Mali: 0.63 Rwanda: 1.50
  • Both teams scored Mali: 4 of 850% Rwanda: 3 of 650%
  • Over 2.5 goals Mali: 4 of 850% Rwanda: 4 of 667%
  • Match corners Mali: 7.25 Rwanda: 6.50
  • Match cards Mali: 3.38 Rwanda: 4.33

Mali's last 8 home games and Rwanda's last 6 away games in all competitions.

Win probabilities

61%Mali 23%Draw 16%Rwanda

From the OddAlerts probability model. See every market

Mali vs Rwanda: questions and answers

When is Mali vs Rwanda?

Mali vs Rwanda kicks off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 November 2026 in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications, at Stade 26 Mars, Bamako.

Who is the favourite in Mali vs Rwanda?

The OddAlerts probability model gives Mali a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Rwanda 16%.

How many goals do Mali and Rwanda games have?

Mali have scored 2.25 goals a game and conceded 0.63 across their last 8 home games in all competitions, while Rwanda have scored 1.17 and conceded 1.50 across their last 6 away games. Both teams have scored in 4 of Mali's last 8 home games and 3 of Rwanda's last 6 away games.

Where are Mali and Rwanda in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications table?

Mali are 2nd in Group K with 6 points from 2 games. Rwanda are 1st in Group K with 6 points from 2 games.

Mali vs Rwanda stats

Mali4W 3D 1L · 8 home games
Rwanda3W 0D 3L · 6 away games
Mali vs Rwanda general stats: Mali's last 8 home games and Rwanda's last 6 away games in all competitions
MaliStatRwanda
Match outcomes
4 of 850% Win 3 of 650%
3 of 838% Draw 0 of 60%
1 of 813% Loss 3 of 650%
15 Points 9
1.88 Points per game 1.50
13 Goal difference -2
Expected goals
0.48 xG per game 0.01
0.22 xGA per game 0.11
14.18 xG performance 6.95
Possession & attacks
44% Possession 34%
32.75 Dangerous attacks 23.00
33.13 Dangerous attacks against 36.17
Shots
10.13 Shots for 6.67
6.38 Shots against 10.00
3.88 On target for 2.17
2.25 On target against 3.83
22% Shot conversion 18%
38% On-target accuracy 33%
Tackles & fouls
9.38 Tackles 6.83
12.00 Fouls committed 10.17
8.25 Fouls won 11.17
1.00 Offsides 1.33

Mali's last 8 home games and Rwanda's last 6 away games in all competitions. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.

Stats as of 12 Nov 2026, 20:27 UK.

Mali vs Rwanda lineups

Lineups will appear here when they're predicted and confirmed. Until then, see team news.

Mali vs Rwanda team news

Mali are without 2 players and Rwanda are without 1 player.

Mali 2 out

Martial Tia Ankle Injury · Missed 5 games Injured
Adama Camara Hamstring Injury · Missed 2 games Injured

Rwanda 1 out

Noam Emeran Unknown Injury · Missed 1 game Injured

Mali vs Rwanda form

Mali D W W L D
Rwanda D W W W W

Last 5 results in all competitions before kick-off, most recent first.

Mali vs Rwanda head to head

3 Mali wins 1 draws 0 Rwanda wins
2.3 goals per game 50% both teams scored 50% over 2.5 goals
  1. 17 Nov 2026Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications Rwanda 19:00 Mali
  2. 13 Nov 2026Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications Mali 19:00 Rwanda
  3. 11 Nov 2021CAF World Cup Qualifiers Rwanda 0–3 Mali
  4. 1 Sep 2021CAF World Cup Qualifiers Mali 1–0 Rwanda
  5. 9 Jun 2013CAF World Cup Qualifiers Mali 1–1 Rwanda
  6. 24 Mar 2013CAF World Cup Qualifiers Rwanda 1–2 Mali

Mali vs Rwanda standings

Group K

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications Group K table
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Last 5
1 Rwanda 220052 +3 6
2 Mali 220041 +3 6
3 Cape Verde Islands 200225 -3 0
4 Liberia 200214 -3 0
  • Mali
  • Rwanda

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications 2027 standings as of 12 Nov 2026, 22:11 UK. Last 5 shows the most recent result first.

Mali vs Rwanda odds

Best price across 5 bookmakers, how it has moved since it opened, and our model's chance for each selection.

Match Result
Selection Best price Since opening Model
Mali 1.34Pinnacle Drifted 6%from 1.27 61%
Draw 5.00Bet365 Shortened 5%from 5.25 23%
Rwanda 11.00Kambi Group No changefrom 11.00 16%
Double Chance
Selection Best price Since opening Model
Mali or Draw 1.05Bet365 No changefrom 1.05 84%
Draw or Rwanda 3.40Bet365 No changefrom 3.40 39%
Mali or Rwanda 1.20WilliamHill Drifted 2%from 1.18 77%
Draw No Bet
Selection Best price Since opening Model
Mali 1.11Bet365 Drifted 1%from 1.10 79%
Rwanda 8.00WilliamHill No changefrom 8.00 21%
Both Teams to Score
Selection Best price Since opening Model
BTTS Yes 2.75Bet365 Drifted 5%from 2.62 45%
BTTS No 1.411xBet Drifted 8%from 1.31 55%
Total Goals
Selection Best price Since opening Model
Over 1.5 1.38Pinnacle No changefrom 1.38 74%
Under 1.5 3.40Bet365 Shortened 3%from 3.50 27%
Over 2.5 2.19Pinnacle Drifted 15%from 1.91 49%
Under 2.5 1.80Bet365 Shortened 8%from 1.95 51%
Over 3.5 3.741xBet Shortened 2%from 3.82 27%
Under 3.5 1.28Bet365 Shortened 4%from 1.33 73%
Half-Time Result
Selection Best price Since opening Model
Mali 1.841xBet Drifted 14%from 1.61 –
Draw 2.33Pinnacle Shortened 6%from 2.48 –
Rwanda 10.00Bet365 No changefrom 10.00 –

Prices are decimal. Updated 12 Nov, 22:09. Gamble responsibly, 18+.

Win probabilities

61%Mali 23%Draw 16%Rwanda
Unlock every model market, including correct scores, half-time/full-time, team goals and corners, with Pro

From the OddAlerts probability model before kick-off.

Mali vs Rwanda predictionPredicted scores and goal markets from our match simulation