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Mali
Rwanda
Mali have scored 2.25 goals a game and conceded 0.63 across their last 8 home games in all competitions, while Rwanda have scored 1.17 and conceded 1.50 across their last 6 away games. Both teams have scored in 4 of Mali's last 8 home games and 3 of Rwanda's last 6 away games. Over 3.5 cards has landed in 5 of Rwanda's last 6 away games. Mali's last 8 home games have averaged 7.3 corners and Rwanda's last 6 away games 6.5. Stats as of 12 Nov 2026, 20:27 UK.
Mali's last 8 home games and Rwanda's last 6 away games in all competitions.
Mali vs Rwanda kicks off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 November 2026 in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications, at Stade 26 Mars, Bamako.
The OddAlerts probability model gives Mali a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Rwanda 16%.
Mali have scored 2.25 goals a game and conceded 0.63 across their last 8 home games in all competitions, while Rwanda have scored 1.17 and conceded 1.50 across their last 6 away games. Both teams have scored in 4 of Mali's last 8 home games and 3 of Rwanda's last 6 away games.
Mali are 2nd in Group K with 6 points from 2 games. Rwanda are 1st in Group K with 6 points from 2 games.
| Mali | Stat | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Match outcomes | ||
| 4 of 850% | Win | 3 of 650% |
| 3 of 838% | Draw | 0 of 60% |
| 1 of 813% | Loss | 3 of 650% |
| 15 | Points | 9 |
| 1.88 | Points per game | 1.50 |
| 13 | Goal difference | -2 |
| Expected goals | ||
| 0.48 | xG per game | 0.01 |
| 0.22 | xGA per game | 0.11 |
| 14.18 | xG performance | 6.95 |
| Possession & attacks | ||
| 44% | Possession | 34% |
| 32.75 | Dangerous attacks | 23.00 |
| 33.13 | Dangerous attacks against | 36.17 |
| Shots | ||
| 10.13 | Shots for | 6.67 |
| 6.38 | Shots against | 10.00 |
| 3.88 | On target for | 2.17 |
| 2.25 | On target against | 3.83 |
| 22% | Shot conversion | 18% |
| 38% | On-target accuracy | 33% |
| Tackles & fouls | ||
| 9.38 | Tackles | 6.83 |
| 12.00 | Fouls committed | 10.17 |
| 8.25 | Fouls won | 11.17 |
| 1.00 | Offsides | 1.33 |
| Mali | Stat | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Goals overview | ||
| 2.88 | Goals per game (total) | 2.67 |
| 18 | Goals scored | 7 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game | 1.17 |
| 5 | Goals conceded | 9 |
| 0.63 | Conceded per game | 1.50 |
| Outcomes | ||
| 5 of 863% | Scored first | 1 of 617% |
| 2 of 825% | Failed to score | 2 of 633% |
| 3 of 838% | Clean sheet | 1 of 617% |
| 4 of 850% | BTTS | 3 of 650% |
| 2 of 825% | BTTS & over 2.5 | 3 of 650% |
| 6 of 875% | BTTS or over 2.5 | 4 of 667% |
| Total goals | ||
| 7 of 888% | Over 0.5 | 6 of 6100% |
| 6 of 875% | Over 1.5 | 4 of 667% |
| 4 of 850% | Over 2.5 | 4 of 667% |
| 3 of 838% | Over 3.5 | 1 of 617% |
| Goals scored | ||
| 6 of 875% | Scored 1+ | 4 of 667% |
| 4 of 850% | Scored 2+ | 3 of 650% |
| 4 of 850% | Scored 3+ | 0 of 60% |
| Goals conceded | ||
| 5 of 863% | Conceded 1+ | 5 of 683% |
| 0 of 80% | Conceded 2+ | 2 of 633% |
| 0 of 80% | Conceded 3+ | 2 of 633% |
| Mali | Stat | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Half-time result | ||
| 4 of 850% | Winning at HT | 1 of 617% |
| 3 of 838% | Drawing at HT | 3 of 650% |
| 1 of 813% | Losing at HT | 2 of 633% |
| Mali | Stat | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Corners per game | ||
| 7.25 | Total corners | 6.50 |
| 3.38 | Corners for | 1.67 |
| 3.88 | Corners against | 4.83 |
| 4 of 850% | Most corners | 0 of 60% |
| Match corner lines | ||
| 4 of 850% | Over 7.5 | 2 of 633% |
| 4 of 850% | Over 8.5 | 2 of 633% |
| 3 of 838% | Over 9.5 | 2 of 633% |
| 3 of 838% | Over 10.5 | 1 of 617% |
| 2 of 825% | Over 11.5 | 0 of 60% |
| 1 of 813% | Over 12.5 | 0 of 60% |
| Corners for lines | ||
| 2 of 825% | For over 4.5 | 0 of 60% |
| 1 of 813% | For over 5.5 | 0 of 60% |
| 0 of 80% | For over 6.5 | 0 of 60% |
| 0 of 80% | For over 7.5 | 0 of 60% |
| Corners against lines | ||
| 4 of 850% | Against over 4.5 | 2 of 633% |
| 3 of 838% | Against over 5.5 | 2 of 633% |
| 2 of 825% | Against over 6.5 | 2 of 633% |
| By half | ||
| 3.88 | 1H total | 3.00 |
| 2.50 | 1H for | 1.00 |
| 1.38 | 1H against | 2.00 |
| 3.38 | 2H total | 3.50 |
| 0.88 | 2H for | 0.67 |
| 2.50 | 2H against | 2.83 |
| Mali | Stat | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per game | ||
| 3.38 | Total cards | 4.33 |
| 1.38 | Cards received | 3.00 |
| 2.00 | Opponent cards | 1.33 |
| 1 of 813% | Most cards | 5 of 683% |
| Match card lines | ||
| 5 of 863% | Over 2.5 | 5 of 683% |
| 2 of 825% | Over 3.5 | 5 of 683% |
| 2 of 825% | Over 4.5 | 4 of 667% |
| 2 of 825% | Over 5.5 | 1 of 617% |
| Cards received lines | ||
| 6 of 875% | Received 1+ | 5 of 683% |
| 3 of 838% | Received 2+ | 5 of 683% |
| 2 of 825% | Received 3+ | 5 of 683% |
| Opponent card lines | ||
| 5 of 863% | Opponent 1+ | 5 of 683% |
| 4 of 850% | Opponent 2+ | 2 of 633% |
| 2 of 825% | Opponent 3+ | 1 of 617% |
| By half | ||
| 1.00 | 1H total | 2.00 |
| 0.50 | 1H received | 1.33 |
| 2.63 | 2H total | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | 2H received | 1.67 |
| Mali | Stat | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Shots & conversion | ||
| 16.50 | Total shots (match) | 16.67 |
| 6.13 | Total on target (match) | 6.00 |
| 58% | On-target conversion | 54% |
Mali's last 8 home games and Rwanda's last 6 away games in all competitions. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.
| Mali | Stat | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Match outcomes | ||
| 4 of 1040% | Win | 4 of 1040% |
| 4 of 1040% | Draw | 1 of 1010% |
| 2 of 1020% | Loss | 5 of 1050% |
| 16 | Points | 13 |
| 1.60 | Points per game | 1.30 |
| 6 | Goal difference | -3 |
| Expected goals | ||
| 0.25 | xG per game | 0.00 |
| 0.41 | xGA per game | 0.00 |
| 10.49 | xG performance | 11.00 |
| Possession & attacks | ||
| 50% | Possession | 33% |
| 36.90 | Dangerous attacks | 29.90 |
| 36.60 | Dangerous attacks against | 31.70 |
| Shots | ||
| 9.60 | Shots for | 7.80 |
| 8.00 | Shots against | 8.30 |
| 2.70 | On target for | 3.60 |
| 2.50 | On target against | 3.10 |
| 14% | Shot conversion | 14% |
| 28% | On-target accuracy | 46% |
| Tackles & fouls | ||
| 12.70 | Tackles | 3.10 |
| 13.90 | Fouls committed | 8.30 |
| 10.70 | Fouls won | 9.40 |
| 1.00 | Offsides | 1.40 |
| Mali | Stat | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Goals overview | ||
| 2.00 | Goals per game (total) | 2.50 |
| 13 | Goals scored | 11 |
| 1.30 | Scored per game | 1.10 |
| 7 | Goals conceded | 14 |
| 0.70 | Conceded per game | 1.40 |
| Outcomes | ||
| 5 of 1050% | Scored first | 4 of 1040% |
| 3 of 1030% | Failed to score | 4 of 1040% |
| 3 of 1030% | Clean sheet | 1 of 1010% |
| 5 of 1050% | BTTS | 5 of 1050% |
| 2 of 1020% | BTTS & over 2.5 | 4 of 1040% |
| 5 of 1050% | BTTS or over 2.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| Total goals | ||
| 9 of 1090% | Over 0.5 | 10 of 10100% |
| 6 of 1060% | Over 1.5 | 7 of 1070% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 2.5 | 5 of 1050% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 3.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| Goals scored | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Scored 1+ | 6 of 1060% |
| 3 of 1030% | Scored 2+ | 4 of 1040% |
| 2 of 1020% | Scored 3+ | 1 of 1010% |
| Goals conceded | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Conceded 1+ | 9 of 1090% |
| 0 of 100% | Conceded 2+ | 3 of 1030% |
| 0 of 100% | Conceded 3+ | 2 of 1020% |
| Mali | Stat | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Half-time result | ||
| 3 of 1030% | Winning at HT | 3 of 1030% |
| 5 of 1050% | Drawing at HT | 4 of 1040% |
| 2 of 1020% | Losing at HT | 3 of 1030% |
| Mali | Stat | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Corners per game | ||
| 8.30 | Total corners | 6.90 |
| 3.40 | Corners for | 2.30 |
| 4.90 | Corners against | 4.60 |
| 3 of 1030% | Most corners | 2 of 1020% |
| Match corner lines | ||
| 5 of 1050% | Over 7.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 5 of 1050% | Over 8.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 9.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 10.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 11.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 1 of 1010% | Over 12.5 | 0 of 100% |
| Corners for lines | ||
| 3 of 1030% | For over 4.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 2 of 1020% | For over 5.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 1 of 1010% | For over 6.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 1 of 1010% | For over 7.5 | 0 of 100% |
| Corners against lines | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Against over 4.5 | 4 of 1040% |
| 4 of 1040% | Against over 5.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 2 of 1020% | Against over 6.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| By half | ||
| 4.20 | 1H total | 3.30 |
| 2.30 | 1H for | 1.30 |
| 1.90 | 1H against | 2.00 |
| 4.10 | 2H total | 3.70 |
| 1.10 | 2H for | 1.10 |
| 3.00 | 2H against | 2.60 |
| Mali | Stat | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per game | ||
| 4.40 | Total cards | 3.80 |
| 2.00 | Cards received | 2.10 |
| 2.40 | Opponent cards | 1.70 |
| 2 of 1020% | Most cards | 5 of 1050% |
| Match card lines | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Over 2.5 | 8 of 1080% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 3.5 | 7 of 1070% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 4.5 | 4 of 1040% |
| 3 of 1030% | Over 5.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| Cards received lines | ||
| 8 of 1080% | Received 1+ | 8 of 1080% |
| 5 of 1050% | Received 2+ | 5 of 1050% |
| 3 of 1030% | Received 3+ | 5 of 1050% |
| Opponent card lines | ||
| 9 of 1090% | Opponent 1+ | 9 of 1090% |
| 7 of 1070% | Opponent 2+ | 5 of 1050% |
| 3 of 1030% | Opponent 3+ | 3 of 1030% |
| By half | ||
| 1.10 | 1H total | 1.30 |
| 0.50 | 1H received | 0.80 |
| 3.50 | 2H total | 2.30 |
| 1.50 | 2H received | 1.20 |
| Mali | Stat | Rwanda |
|---|---|---|
| Shots & conversion | ||
| 17.60 | Total shots (match) | 16.10 |
| 5.20 | Total on target (match) | 6.70 |
| 48% | On-target conversion | 31% |
Mali's last 10 games and Rwanda's last 10 games in all competitions. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.
Stats as of 12 Nov 2026, 20:27 UK.
Lineups will appear here when they're predicted and confirmed. Until then, see team news.
Mali are without 2 players and Rwanda are without 1 player.
Last 5 results in all competitions before kick-off, most recent first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 | ||
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications 2027 standings as of 12 Nov 2026, 22:11 UK. Last 5 shows the most recent result first.
Best price across 5 bookmakers, how it has moved since it opened, and our model's chance for each selection.
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mali | 1.34Pinnacle | Drifted 6%from 1.27 | 61% |
| Draw | 5.00Bet365 | Shortened 5%from 5.25 | 23% |
| Rwanda | 11.00Kambi Group | No changefrom 11.00 | 16% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mali or Draw | 1.05Bet365 | No changefrom 1.05 | 84% |
| Draw or Rwanda | 3.40Bet365 | No changefrom 3.40 | 39% |
| Mali or Rwanda | 1.20WilliamHill | Drifted 2%from 1.18 | 77% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mali | 1.11Bet365 | Drifted 1%from 1.10 | 79% |
| Rwanda | 8.00WilliamHill | No changefrom 8.00 | 21% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 2.75Bet365 | Drifted 5%from 2.62 | 45% |
| BTTS No | 1.411xBet | Drifted 8%from 1.31 | 55% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.38Pinnacle | No changefrom 1.38 | 74% |
| Under 1.5 | 3.40Bet365 | Shortened 3%from 3.50 | 27% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.19Pinnacle | Drifted 15%from 1.91 | 49% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.80Bet365 | Shortened 8%from 1.95 | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 3.741xBet | Shortened 2%from 3.82 | 27% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.28Bet365 | Shortened 4%from 1.33 | 73% |
| Selection | Best price | Since opening | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mali | 1.841xBet | Drifted 14%from 1.61 | – |
| Draw | 2.33Pinnacle | Shortened 6%from 2.48 | – |
| Rwanda | 10.00Bet365 | No changefrom 10.00 | – |
Prices are decimal. Updated 12 Nov, 22:09. Gamble responsibly, 18+.
From the OddAlerts probability model before kick-off.
Mali vs Rwanda predictionPredicted scores and goal markets from our match simulation