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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Bahia vs São Paulo 100,000 times. Bahia won 54,328 of them (54.3%), the draw came up 24.7% of the time and São Paulo won 20.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.7%, while the likeliest Bahia win is 1-0 (10.1%). Both teams score in 53.6% of simulations.
Full time 3-2. Before kick-off the simulations had Bahia winning 54.3% and gave this exact score 2.9%.
| Bahia win | 54.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.7% |
| São Paulo win | 20.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.7%) |
| Expected goals | 1.78 – 1.02 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Bahia score first | 57.5% |
| São Paulo score first | 35.6% |
| Bahia clean sheet | 36.3% |
| São Paulo clean sheet | 17.2% |
Atlético Mineiro
Cruzeiro
1.5–1.5
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Vasco da Gama
Flamengo
1.1–1.6
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Grêmio
Athletico PR
1.6–1.2
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Corinthians
Mirassol
1.7–1.0
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Coritiba
Vitória
1.5–1.1
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Bragantino
Santos
1.9–1.3
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Chapecoense
Mirassol
1.4–1.5
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Internacional
Coritiba
2.1–0.9
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493518 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Bahia are favourites. They win 54.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.7% for the draw and 20.9% for São Paulo. Including the draw, Bahia avoid defeat 79.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.7% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest Bahia win is 1-0 (10.1%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.6% of simulations. Bahia keep a clean sheet 36.3% of the time and São Paulo 17.2%.
The simulations average 2.81 goals: 1.78 for Bahia and 1.02 for São Paulo. Over 1.5 goals lands 77.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 53% and over 3.5 goals 31%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.