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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Burnley vs Portsmouth 100,000 times. Burnley won 41,593 of them (41.6%), the draw came up 29% of the time and Portsmouth won 29.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13.6%, while the likeliest Burnley win is 1-0 (10.7%). Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
| Burnley win | 41.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29% |
| Portsmouth win | 29.5% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.35 – 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.4% |
| Burnley score first | 51.5% |
| Portsmouth score first | 38.6% |
| Burnley clean sheet | 33.6% |
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 26.2% |
Sheffield United
Wrexham
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Stoke City
Preston North End
1.8–0.9
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Lincoln City
Birmingham City
1.2–1.6
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Norwich City
Watford
2.1–1.0
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Swansea City
Blackburn Rovers
1.7–1.0
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Cardiff City
2.0–1.1
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Bolton Wanderers
Bristol City
1.3–1.6
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Millwall
Derby County
1.9–1.0
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420644037 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Burnley are favourites. They win 41.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 29% for the draw and 29.5% for Portsmouth. Including the draw, Burnley avoid defeat 70.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13.6% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (10.7%) and 0-0 (9.8%). The likeliest Burnley win is 1-0 (10.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Burnley keep a clean sheet 33.6% of the time and Portsmouth 26.2%.
The simulations average 2.45 goals: 1.35 for Burnley and 1.10 for Portsmouth. Over 1.5 goals lands 71% of the time, over 2.5 goals 44.3% and over 3.5 goals 23.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.